The Improbable War: China, The United States and Logic of Great Power Conflict

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The Improbable War explains why conflict between the USA and China cannot be ruled out. In 1914 war between the Great Powers was considered unlikely, yet it happened. We learn only from history, and popular though the First World War analogy is, the lessons we draw from its outbreak are usually mistaken. Among these errors is the tendency to over-estimate human rationality.

All major conflicts of the past 300 years have been about the norms and rules of the international system. In China and the US the world confronts two 'exceptional' powers whose values differ markedly, with China bidding to challenge the current order. The 'Thucydidean Trap' - when a conservative status quo power confronts a rising new one - may also play its part in precipitating hostilities. To avoid stumbling into an avoidable war both Beijing and Washington need a coherent strategy, which neither of them has.

History also reveals that war evolves continually. The next global conflict is likely to be played out in cyberspace and outer space and like all previous wars it will have devastating consequences. Such a war between the United States and China may seem improbable, but it is all too possible, which is why we need to discuss it now.

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The Improbable War: China, The United States and Logic of Great Power Conflict
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Hardcover: 256 pages
Publisher: Oxford University Press (January 15, 2015)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0199396272
ISBN-13: 978-0199396276
Product Dimensions: 8.6 x 0.7 x 5.9 inches
Shipping Weight: 13.6 ounces
http://www.amazon.com/Improbable-War-United-States-Conflict/dp/0199396272/ref=sr_1_1_twi_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1422746441&sr=8-1&keywords=The+Improbable+War%3A+China%2C+The+United+States+and+Logic+of+Great+Power+Conflict

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关键词：PROBABLE Conflict States United Logic China Logic Power

The Improbable War: China, The United States and Logic of Great Power Conflict

seems a good book

thank a lot

kankan

好好读一读，看看有何启发

kankan,xiexie.

看看 阅读

The Improbable War: China, The United States and Logic of Great Power Conflict

不可能的战争:中国、美国和大国冲突的逻辑