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The Day After Tomorrow, v1.0
The changing face of the consumer
Looking ahead to the "Day After Tomorrow"
On the other side of the current financial market turmoil, we see the global
landscape shifting dramatically. We see long-lasting implications from today’s
events that will change the shape of many industries. Most notably, we expect
credit availability to be tighter for the foreseeable future, muting the shape of a
consumer recovery over the intermediate term. Meanwhile, the continued BRICs
ascent is gradually shifting the center of gravity away from the OECD countries,
increasing the role and relevance of the emerging market’s consumer. In this
report, we discuss implications for the consumer once the dust settles.
A new consumer emerges worldwide...
The face of the global consumer is changing. Our report assesses how consumerdriven
industries are positioned to deal with two customers – first, the new US
consumer, who is constrained by a higher savings rate and tighter credit and,
second, the emerging market consumer, rising from within a burgeoning middle
class in the BRICs and N-11 countries.
...who will reshape certain industries
Among the more noteworthy implications are the following:
• Consumer spending will be hindered as new credit becomes harder to come by
and the cost of credit rises meaningfully. For example, we expect a 16%
increase in the cost of credit for credit cards alone.
• US consumers, forced to save, will need to limit their discretionary purchases.
Vacations, for one, will no longer be an entitlement.
• The emerging markets’ middle class will drive a “barbell spending boom”, with
growth in better basics and aspirational luxury.
• US Autos should remain under pressure as US consumer savings rates
increase, with emerging markets unable to pick up the slack.
• The importance of the “brand” in the US will decrease.
• The PC unit cycle will be stronger than expected; however the shift towards
BRICs will pressure PC prices. Low-cost alternatives will lower ASPs,
potentially changing the standing of key competitors.
Trading our view
We highlight key winners and losers throughout the report: those that are best
positioned to face the new consumer and those that will bear the brunt of change.
We also highlight our top 5 long stock ideas: WMT, AVP, AMZN, RIMM and Acer.
Table of contents
Overview: The global center of gravity shifts for the consumer in the “Day After Tomorrow” 3
A higher personal savings rate: causes and consequences 6
New consumer credit will remain hard to come by in the Day after Tomorrow 12
Consumer credit: Growth expected to fall from 5% to -5% per annum 14
FEDs lending survey suggests risks are to the downside 16
The rise of the BRICs/N11 and an emerging middle class 18
Consumer Products and Retail: US consumer becomes a thrifty saver, while EM middle class picks up the slack 23
Consumer economy slows in a higher saving rate environment 25
Emerging middle class drives emerging barbell spending boom 39
Spotlight on Emerging Middle in Brazil: Lojas Americanas well-positioned in this demographic 48
Spotlight on Internet – Further shift from offline to online shopping disproportionately benefits Amazon 52
US Autos: Pressure rises if consumers save – even if OECD grows 56
Technology: Day after tomorrow shifts tech demand’s center of gravity to emerging markets: see far-reaching implications 70
PC unit growth should remain solid but revenue growth will lag 71
Hardware implications: Lower ASPs a negative for industry stalwarts HP and Dell 75
A new form factor arises: Adoption of low-cost netbooks accelerated by changes in demand profile 76
Semiconductor implications: Analog gross margins could suffer from mix shift in notebook growth to emerging markets 78
Software implications: MSFT attacked on many flanks; rise of browser-based computing, ultimately desktop in the cloud 79
Bifurcating handset market likely to leave the middle pinched by slowing US and European consumer demand 81
Apple, RIM and HTC are the likely smartphone winners, with HTC stock best positioned to weather the margin
compression 85
RIM, Apple, Qualcomm and Acer are the top Technology ideas with Dell the most challenged 86
Disclosures
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