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Update: Weekly primary sales, ending October 5,
2008
Primary sales data did not reflect the full picture: According
to the preliminary data from on-line government websites, primary sales in
Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Chengdu, and Shenzhen apparently dropped
25-77%. However, as most corporations and government offices were not opened
during the National Day Golden Week, we believe that some transactions were not
properly recorded in the system. For example, there were no transactions
reported at all from the web site of Tianjin Housing Bureau during the holiday.
The same problem also existed for the golden week figures in 2007: If we take a look at the sales
figures during the golden week holiday in 2007, the very same problem also
seemed to be there. Transaction volume apparently looked quite low in the golden
week of 07 (Table 1), but that was not a fact as the property markets across the
country were still relatively hot in October last year. Indeed, if we make a Y/Y
comparison for the golden week sales, transactions in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Chongqing were still up, while Shanghai and Chengdu saw Y/Y
decline. What we know from our preliminary checks: Overall speaking,
primary sales during the Golden Week Holiday were unlikely to be very pretty,
with Shenzhen and Shanghai reportedly faring poorly. In general,
developers have further cut price in most cities so as to stimulate demand, but
that did not work in every case. Chengdu has fared relatively better during the
Golden Week with 3,134 units sold in the Real Estate Fair. In Guangzhou, mid/low-tier
housing was well received in the market, as the price cut for this product was
able to trigger some good demand.
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[此贴子已经被作者于2008-10-7 14:04:59编辑过]
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