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投行夜现场 | 点题精讲 第 6 期
郭悦
清华大学 CDC 投行部副主席
已赴美银美林香港办公室实习
Questions
IBD: You’ve never worked in finance before. How much do you know about what bankers actually do?
IPO: Let’s say I’m working on an IPO for a client. Can you describe briefly what I would do?
Tech-DCF-1: Which has a greater impact on a company’s DCF valuation – a 10% change in revenue or a 1% change in the discount rate?
Tech-DCF-2: What types of sensitivity analyses would we look at in a DCF?
下面我们来看看学姐的回答吧~
IBD:
从业务上来讲分为三块，包括发股、发债、M&A，而在日常工作中，对于 analyst 来说也大致有三类的活儿。首先是做 PPT，比如 pre-pitch book，推荐自己的公司帮别人做 deal；其次是做 excel 搭 model，属于比较 technical 的工作，这类技术性更强的工作都是 analyst 来完成；最后还有一些 administrative 的工作，比如制定部门计划等，属于辅助性工作。
IPO:
首先是 Pitch 环节，实际是一个向有意向做 IPO 的公司推荐自己的过程，投行会向潜在客户展现自己历史上做过多少类似的成功案例，自己与买方投资者的关系等，最终胜出的几家投行会拿到 deal 进入后续的环节。
拿到 Deal 后投行一般会对客户展开比较详细的尽职调查，主要去客户那里了解一下公司的运营情况和行业情况，方便投行为公司制定更为详细的方案。
之后进入 IPO 的 Execution 阶段。这一阶段持续时间可以从几个月到三四年，接下来就是路演，路演中投行会与买方投资者见面并推销自己所承销的即将 IPO 公司的股票。在上市前非常重要的环节是定价，这是一个重要的博弈过程，投行要在公司利益，投资者利益和自身利益之间找到一个平衡点，确定最后的股票发行价。公司上市后如果股价走势不错，投行会发绿鞋（Greenshoe Option）；如果股价走势不太好，投行会做 stabilizer。
Tech-DCF-1:
在这里我们不好说 10% 的 revenue 变化和 1% 的 discount rate 哪个对公司影响更大，在不同的 model 里面会有不同的答案。但是从一般来说，在 DCF model 中 discount rate 的变化会更多地影响公司的 enterprise value。在 DCF model 里面，公司的 terminal value 会在公司 enterprise value 中占到 50% 以上。Terminal value 的计算是采用 Dividend Growth Model，在分母上是 wacc-g，一般来说这个数在 5%-8% 左右。那么我假设 wacc 从百分比上减少了 1%，那此时相当于 wacc-g 就减少了将近 10%-20%，意味着 terminal value 会随着分母的减小增加相应比例。由于 terminal value 变动会对整个 enterprise value 产生很大的影响，我们就可以看到 discount rate 的微小变化对最后的 enterprise value 的影响实际是非常大的。
Tech-DCF-2:
敏感性分析并不困难，每次测试调整一个数值，比如把 sales 的增量固定为一连串不同的值，在已经搭好的 model 上观察这个值的变化对于最终 enterprise value 的影响有多大，敏感性测试的意义在于对我们不完全准确的假设留出容错的空间，最终给客户呈现出来的也是一个变动的范围。
除了 sales 对估值的影响之外，还有其他一些指标，包括 terminal value（需要对其进行增长率的估计）以及 discount rate。
Other answers or comments
Q
&
A
QUESTION:
You’ve never worked in finance before. How much do you know about what bankers actually do?
ANSWERS & COMMENTS:
You should acknowledge that although you haven’t worked in the field before, you’ve done a lot of research on your own and have spoken with many friends in the industry.
Based on that, you know that bankers advise companies on transactions – buying and selling other companies, and raising capital. They are “agents” that connect a company with the appropriate buyer, seller, or investor.
The day-to-day work involves creating presentations, financial analysis and marketing materials such as Executive Summaries.
QUESTION:
Let’s say I’m working on an IPO for a client. Can you describe briefly what I would do?
ANSWERS & COMMENTS:
First, you meet with the client and gather basic information – such as their financial details, an industry overview, and who their customers are.
Next, you meet with other bankers and the lawyers to draft the S-1 registration statement – which describes the company’s business and markets it to investors. You receive some comments from the SEC and keep revising the document until it’s acceptable.
Then, you spend a few weeks going on a “road show” where you present the company to institutional investors and convince them to invest. Afterwards, the company begins trading on an exchange once you’ve raised the capital from investors.
QUESTION:
Which has a greater impact on a company’s DCF valuation – a 10% change in revenue or a 1% change in the discount rate?
ANSWERS & COMMENTS:
You should start by saying, “it depends” but most of the time the 10% difference in revenue will have more of an impact. That change in revenue doesn’t affect only the current year’s revenue, but also the revenue/EBITDA far into the future and even the terminal value.
QUESTION:
What types of sensitivity analyses would we look at in a DCF?
ANSWERS & COMMENTS:
Example sensitivities:
• Revenue Growth vs. Terminal Multiple
• EBITDA Margin vs. Terminal Multiple
Source: The 400 Investment Banking Interview Questions & Answers You Need to Know
采访：涂瀚宇 责编：许云宗
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