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Global Economic Perspectives（20页）
In the aftermath of the default of Lehman Brothers the global financial
system has been pushed to the brink of collapse. The associated severe
tightening of the credit crisis has begun to spill over significantly into the
real economy and poses a major downside risk to the outlook.
The experience of past financial crises has indicated that timely and
aggressive policy action to stabilize the financial system and to boost
aggregate demand can significantly reduce the loss of output associated
with such an event. When the crisis is global, the policy measures must be
coordinated across national governments.
The impressive array of measures that have now been pledged by US and
European authorities would seem to be sufficient to stabilize the financial
system if they are implemented in a timely and effective manner. However,
given the negative effects of the credit crunch that is already under way,
they are unlikely to be sufficient to induce substantial new lending on their
own. Significant fiscal stimulus will likely be needed to jump start the
economy; such stimulus seems highly likely.
Depending on how quickly and effectively the announced measures are
implemented, and depending on how large and timely likely fiscal stimulus
packages are, we see both upside and downside risks to our recently
released below-consensus World Outlook forecast for moderate
recessions in the US, Europe, and Japan.
The financial costs of recent banking
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