Bloomberg News/Landov
We haven’t hit the lows yet — but we’re much closer.While market participants were so certain that the 2014 lows were the final lows in the metals and miners, we have continually warned that lower lows were going to be seen.
Not too long ago I wrote an article providing my long term projection for the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index HUI, -2.26% (15,000) and for gold ($25,000), for which I was summarily ridiculed. However, if you read that article carefully, you would know that I was first expecting gold to head to 1,000 or even lower, and for the HUI to challenge the 100 region before the bull market would be able to resume. Well, we are almost there.
But, rather than accept they were wrong, those that expected the prior lows to hold point to when and how the decline to lower lows occurred. They claim that it was "manipulated" by a single seller to cause it to collapse as it did. But, we expected this decline to occur, and we even provided the targets for this decline to strike. Does that mean that we may be the lone seller that "caused" this decline so we can meet our analysis targets?
Again, if the market is set up to drop, and it does so, I really don't care what the reason is to which the pundits point. The "catalyst" for the decline could be a world event, or the sale by a single seller who had to cover a margin call. In fact, we could have seen that decline with no real reason at all – which we have seen in the past during certain metal's declines. It really matters not. The decline was expected, and the initial targets have been struck, as expected. So, either we are clairvoyant, or the market is truly patterned. (I will tell you, though, that I am not clairvoyant).
Now, while we have dropped to lows below those of 2014, we are told by one author that it is within "a perfect storm." Well, we have had our umbrella waiting and ready, and have been warning of this storm well before the clouds even formed.
We are told that settlement of the Greek debt matter caused gold to drop. But, did gold rally on the Greek debt turmoil? I think not. So, why would one insult our intelligence by claiming that Greece has had anything to do with the movements in gold? We were also told that the Chinese concerns have eased dramatically, and that caused gold to drop. But, again, this "reason" also insults our intelligence, as gold didn't rally on the concerns about China. So, why would it drop when those concerns were supposedly eased?
We can either continue to look for excuses for being on the wrong side of the market, or we can simply decide to look for what will keep us on the correct side of the market. It is your choice. I would rather people continue to tell me I am wrong about my "reasons," but make money on my trades for being on the correct side of the price movements in the market. That tells me I am more correct than any "reason" that may sound good — some of which are simply absurd, like Greece or China — which are only used as after-the-fact excuses by those who weren't on the correct side of the price movement, or by those who really don't understand how this market works.
For now, I don't believe the lows have yet been struck, but I do believe we are much closer to those lows at this time. From an Elliott Wave perspective, we are only completing wave iii of (3) down at this time. That means we will likely see a wave iv bounce, followed by the completion of wave v of (3) down to lower lows. This will lead to a larger degree 4th wave bounce, which should rally approximately a month or so, before we make our final lows in this market, which will then lead to the resumption of the long term bull market.
So, while we may have several more months of up/down machinations taking us lower, I suggest you get your shopping list of mining stocks together. At Elliottwavetrader.net, we are doing exactly that with the managed miner's portfolio we are rolling out in September.
See chart illustrating the wave count on the GLD.
[size=13.3333330154419px]Chart on GLD (daily) for Tuesday July 21st 2015by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net
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