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Introduction...............................................................................................3
Simkins’ unrestricted VAR ........................................................................4
A VAR in logs ...........................................................................................5
VEC models..............................................................................................7
Seasonality – A VEC in the Differences .................................................11
Conclusion..............................................................................................15
References: ............................................................................................16
Appendix 1: Forecasting Results Of the Considered Models .................17
Appendix 2: Model Forecasts for Three Periods in Diagrams ................18
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