发帖
雷达卡
25 November 2008
Asian Power/Utilities
Meter Reading November
Michael Tong, CFA
Research Analyst
(852) 2203 6167
michael.tong@db.com
Eric Cheng, CFA
Research Analyst
(852) 2203 6202
eric-ct.cheng@db.com
DB Asia Utility Monthly
The DB Asia Utility Monthly reviews all of the local newsflow, summarises all of
the recent sector research from Deutsche Bank and contains detailed share price
performance and sector comps.
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at http://gm.db.com or by calling 1-877-
208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Industry Update
Top picks
Beijing Enterprises (0392.HK),HKD26.55 Buy
Guangdong Investment (0270.HK),HKD2.57 Buy
PGN (PGAS.JK),IDR1,810.00 Buy
Aboitiz Power (AP.PS),PHP3.45 Buy
Global Markets Research Company
Monthly focus: slowing electricity demand across the region
Starting this month, we chart the aggregate monthly power generation
(consumption) growth trend for major Asian countries since 2006. These statistics
have increasingly caught investors’ attention as they provide good indicators for
gauging the pace of economical development. In most Asian countries, industries
account for the largest power usage, with China (~75%) in particular, followed by
Korea (~53%), Malaysia (~50%), Thailand (~47%) and India (~45%).
Recent DB sector research
We reiterated Buy on EGCO and Ratch following their 3Q08 results due to their
cheap valuations, highest dividend yields among the Asian Power/Utilities universe,
and relative defensiveness as the vast majority of their cash flow has already been
secured under long-term power purchase agreements. We also reiterate Buy on
PGN given the company’s earnings visibility and low refinancing risk. We maintain
our Sell rating on Tata Power, NTPC and Huadian given rising capital costs for Tata
Power, lower operating rates for NTPC, and no sign of margin recovery for
Huadian. We cut our target price for China Gas Hldgs and see the company’s
concentration of sales to two to three large industrial customers as a key
downside risk should the Chinese economy slow down further.
News from the local press
The most notable news was the massive slowdown in electricity demand in China,
with power generation growth of -3% YoY in October. In Thailand, EGAT is
currently reviewing its power development plan to address the likely slowing
electricity demand in the country, which implies that the next round of IPP
solicitation and new greenfield projects would be delayed.
Share price movement and valuations
Most stocks in the Asian Power/Utilities space continued to register negative
share price performance over the past month due to the poor macroeconomic
environment. However, Guangdong Investment (Buy) was the best performer
(+32%) and clearly outperformed the market (+59%) due to the potential 34%
tariff hike for water supply to Hong Kong after 2008. Tianjin Capital and China
Everbright Int’l also outperformed the HSCEI, which we believe was mainly driven
by China’s announcement to put in massive infrastructure spending in the next
few years. We use discounted cash flow model to value most of the Asian
Power/Utilities stocks. Key risks relevant to the sector include regulatory risk,
commodity price volatility, GDP growth rates and currency movements.
Table of Contents
Slowing electricity demand.............................................................. 4
DB research ........................................................................................ 6
Summary..................................................................................................................................6
Manila Water (Hold, TP: PHP15.00): 3Q08 results + imminent tariff increase..........................6
Tata Power (Sell, TP: INR630.00): Rising capital cost casts its shadow....................................7
Huadian Power (Sell, TP: HK$1.25): Long march to recovery; maintain Sell .............................7
PGN (Buy, TP: IDR2,300) Defensive domestic play; reiterate Buy............................................8
Aboitiz Power (Buy, TP: PHP7.70): Another strong quarter ......................................................9
China Gas Holdings (Hold, TP: HK$0.60): Target price cut on greater uncertainty ahead .........9
Thai Tap Water Supply PCL (Buy, TP: THB5.70): 3Q08 earnings jump 55% YoY but miss
target......................................................................................................................................10
First Gen Corp (Buy, TP: PHP14.75): Sta Rita re-levering raises US$215m for First Gen........10
NTPC Limited (Sell, TP: INR115.00): Coal supply falls below critical level; Operating rates drop
...............................................................................................................................................11
Ratchaburi (Buy, TP: THB45.00): Solid 9M08 results; reiterate Buy........................................12
Electricity Generating (Buy, TP: THB102.00): 9M08 results in-line; prefer EGCO to Ratch .....12
YTL Power (Hold): 1QFY09 NP fell on one-off windfall levy....................................................13
Recent newsflow ............................................................................. 14
China......................................................................................................................................14
Hong Kong ..............................................................................................................................15
Malaysia.................................................................................................................................15
Philippines..............................................................................................................................17
Korea......................................................................................................................................17
Thailand..................................................................................................................................18
India .......................................................................................................................................19
Share price performance and sector comps ................................. 21
282448.pdf
(608.13 KB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)
京公网安备 11010802022788号
