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雷达卡
7 January 2009
Turkey Idealog - Jan 09
Running thin
In the absence of a global re-rating in EM
equities, short-term upside in ISE-100
could be capped at around 29,000 levels
as prevailing macro challenges prevent a
stronger conviction on our 39,000 12-
month bottom up target.
Serhan Gok
Research Analyst
(90) 212 292 2854
serhan.gok@db.com
Mete Ozbek
Research Analyst
(90) 212 3190325
mete.ozbek@db.com
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Idealog Index vs. ISE 100
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Idealog Index ISE 100 (rebased)
Market synopsis
@31 December 2008 Closing m-o-m
ISE 100 (TRY) 26,864 4.5%1,149 pts
ISE 100 ($) 1.77 7.3% 0.12 pts
MSCI EM ($) 198 4.4% 8.3 pts
ISE Ave. Vol. ($m) 601 -27.6%
ISE 100 monthly Hi/Lo 27,228 23,079
ISE 30 best performers
m-o-m $ perf Ave Vol
ARCLK 31% $8.3m
AKGRT 24% $3.4m
GARAN 17% $143.2m
ISE 30 worst performers
m-o-m $ perf Ave Vol
TKFEN -13% $19.8m
BAGFS -11% $3.1m
DOHOL -7% $2.6m
Recent rating/target price revisions
Stock (PT) Current Prev. TP chg
EREGL.IS (TRY2.92) SELL SELL -12%
ISGYO.IS (TRY1.28) BUY BUY -38%
TUPRS.IS (TRY29.00) BUY BUY +4%
ALARK.IS (TRY4.96) BUY BUY -39%
Global Markets Research Company
CBT’s swift delivery of liquidity relief measures and easing bias support
equity valuations but fiscal side of the policy mix remains a major challenge;
it is too early to talk of a virtuous cycle
Market’s November dip invoked a contrarian response from us, based on such
catalysts as the sharp multiple discounts on revised 2009 estimates, and potential
administrative policies to support Turkey’s relatively resilient macro case. By
adopting a stronger than expected easing bias, the CBT has done its part
delivering the liquidity relief measures we expected. In the meantime, the
government has changed its stance regarding an IMF programme, saying
numerous times through the course of 4Q08 that a precautionary or regular standby
deal is 'imminent.' However, we see the fiscal side of the policy mix remaining
a major challenge as we do not yet subscribe to the view that a combination of
tightening and lower yields would lead to higher banking lending. While it is true
that the sharp decline in benchmark bond yields rendered maintenance of banks’
liquid positions increasingly expensive, the lending appetite still remains
dependent on trends in NPL and confidence levels.
In the absence of a global re-rating in EM equities, short-term upside in ISE-
100 could be capped at around 29,000 levels as prevailing macro challenges
prevent a stronger conviction on our 39,000 12-month bottom up target
Without a major change in our macro and micro assumptions, our short-term
bottom up ISE-100 target remains unchanged this month at 29,250. This reflects a
25% discount assumption to our 12-month target, based on the average gap
between market prices and PTs in 2008. Turkish banking sector multiples, another
indicator we regard as an important reference point for short-term market
prospects, remain close to EMEA peers with 6.0x 2009E P/E (vs. 6.8x) and 1.1x
2009E P/Tangible BV (vs. 1.2x).
Top Picks: Turk Telekom; Aksigorta in, Turkcell out
In this month’s portfolio, we are making some changes to reflect changed risk &
reward in select stocks after the December rally. As such, we are replacing
Turkcell with Turk Telekom on valuation grounds, with the latter name showing
higher potential upside to our PT. Aksigorta makes its way into our portfolio as the
stock's discount to its CNAV remains high with its relative price at the lower range
of a 2-standard-deviation band of its major underlier, Akbank. Despite last month’s
stellar performance Garanti remains as the best value among the Big-4.
Conversely, Yapi Kredi remains 4% above our target price. We keep Turkish
Airlines in the portfolio based on its attractive valuation and potential fast margin
response to declining oil prices. Finally, we see Erdemir as a potential
underperformer due to deterioration in profitability with the meltdown in steel
price & demand outlook. See Pages 7-9 for details of our key equity calls and Top
Table of Contents
Running thin....................................................................................... 3
CBT’s swift delivery of liquidity relief measures and easing bias support equity valuations but
fiscal side of the policy mix remains a major challenge ............................................................3
In the absence of a global re-rating in EM equities, short-term upside in ISE-100 could be
capped at around 29,000 levels as prevailing macro challenges prevent a stronger conviction
on our 39,000 12-month bottom up target ...............................................................................4
Equity Overview ................................................................................ 7
Major developments in the past month....................................................................................7
Our key calls in the past month ................................................................................................9
Monthly Agenda .............................................................................. 10
Top Picks .......................................................................................... 12
Top Picks: Turk Telekom, Aksigorta in, Turkcell out ................................................................12
Top picks underperformed the ISE-100 by 5.1% in December...............................................12
Idealog portfolio methodology and history .............................................................................12
Top Picks .......................................................................................... 14
Market Data ..................................................................................... 25
Datascan........................................................................................... 28
Key Market Aggregates................................................................... 30
Foreign Participation in ISE ............................................................ 31
Turkish Derivatives Exchange ........................................................ 33
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