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Porsche – Overweight (V), target price
EUR158; Daimler – Overweight, EUR63
Volkswagen – Neutral (V), target price
EUR182
BMW – Underweight, target price EUR30
Audi and Porsche benefit from the
economies of scale of the VW Group
We believe integrated premium OEMs like Audi and
Porsche will probably have a strategic advantage in the
future since they can base their business models on the
higher production volumes of the entire group, which is an
advantage for cutting costs. We like the new production
strategy of VW Group and we are above consensus, but for
valuation reasons we only rate the stock Neutral (V). We
consider Porsche a better play to participate in the success of
VW (and Audi), since Porsche will fully consolidate VW in
its accounts later this year. At the same time, Porsche’s core
EBIT should benefit from the higher cost savings that can be
realised with VW.
Daimler: a special case
In principle, we think Mercedes-Benz Cars is too small to
sustain the high EBIT margins of 9% to 10% we estimate the
company will generate over the next few years.
Nevertheless, we believe things will get better, before they
get worse. We expect 2009e to be a peak year for Daimler in
earnings at Mercedes-Benz Cars and the trucks division, and
this is not reflected in Daimler’s share price. A continuation
of share buy-backs should lend further support.
BMW: missing its guidance
We do not believe all the targets set by BMW’s ‘Number ONE’
strategy will be achieved. We expect, for example, BMW will
miss its unit sales targets in 2008e and 2012e. The company
will increase its EBT margin until 2012e, but we do not expect
a significant improvement before 2010e. Like Mercedes, BMW
has the problem of being too small compared with peers like
Audi and Lexus. BMW might enter more joint ventures, but we
consider this a second-best solution.
目录
Twilight of the gods: the
German premium OEMs 3
Company profiles 9
BMW 10
Daimler 31
Porsche SE 54
Volkswagen 77
Disclosure appendix 100
Disclaimer 103
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