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Economy set for a slowdown; we
expect a trough of 5.7% y-o-y in April-
June 2009
Market expectations of EPS growth too
low; could lead to upside surprises
Our end-2009e targets: Sensex 11,000,
Nifty 3,600
Stalling growth
India’s economic growth is slowing significantly – we
expect GDP growth to average 7% in the fiscal year ending
March 2009e and 6.2% in 2010e.
Monetary policy has turned accommodative which will
boost growth, but with a lag of 12-24 months; we expect the
economy to hit a cyclical low of 5.7% growth in April-June
2009. The room for a fiscal boost to the economy is limited.
Corporate earnings are likely to remain stressed – we
expect 0% EPS growth in the current fiscal year and 5-10%
the following year.
The good news is that the bad news is already in the
price. While consensus forecasts are still being revised
downwards, the market is ahead of forecasts and currently
implies a significant decline in earnings during the next
fiscal year.
We would not be surprised about consensus turning
excessively bearish, overlooking some positives for next
year, such as a decline in commodity prices, an additional
boost in energy output, strong agricultural growth during the
quarter, and the fact that India is among the markets least
exposed to global economic trends. This will result in upside
surprises to growth, in our view. We are overweight on
India in our Asia Pacific portfolio.
Major risks for the market are elections and corporate
governance concerns; the market will remain nervous ahead of
elections, though a BJP or Congress-led alliance could boost
sentiment. Our key overweight sectors are telecoms and
industrials. We also like state-owned banks, but are wary of
private sector banks. Our key underweight is real estate.
目录
Our key views 2
Economics 4
Equity market outlook 7
Fixed income 14
Foreign exchange 19
Drivers for 2009 21
Sector view and top picks 26
Sector profiles 31
Automobiles 32
Retail 34
Industrials 37
Infrastructure – EPC 39
Transmission Tower 41
FMCG 42
Sugar 44
Oil and Gas 46
Cement 51
Aluminium 54
Banks & Financials 57
Property 60
IT 62
Telecoms 65
Utilities 68
Company profiles 71
BHEL - BHEL, OW(V) 72
GMR - GMRI, UW(V) 73
Shree Cement - SRCM, OW(V) 74
Colgate - CLGT, OW(V) 75
Tata Power - TPWR, OW(V) 76
CESC - CESC, OW(V) 77
Reliance Industries - RIL, OW(V) 78
Reliance Petroleum - RPET, OW(V) 79
DLF - DLFU IN, UW (V) 80
Punjab National Bank - PNB, OW(V) 81
Canara Bank - CBK, OW(V) 82
ING Vysya Bank - VYSB, UW(V) 83
Infosys Tech - INFY, OW(V) 84
Bharti Airtel - BHARTI, OW(V) 85
Appendix 86
Disclosure appendix 92
Disclaimer 95
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