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Mobile Operating Systems
Anarchy in the OS
Jonathan Goldberg, CFA
Research Analyst
(1) 415 617 4259
jonathan.goldberg@db.com
Brian Modoff
Research Analyst
(1) 415 617 4237
brian.modoff@db.com
Fundamental, Industry, Thematic, Thought-Leading
Deutsche Bank's Company Research Product Committee has deemed this work
F.I.T.T. for our clients seeking differentiated ideas. Here, our wireless technology
team looks at trends in the mobile operating system, which is emerging as a key
battleground in the future of the mobile ecosystem.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
FITT Research
Companies featured
Motorola (MOT.N),USD4.50 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) -0.02 -0.26 -0.31
P/E (x) – – –
EV/EBITDA (x) 103.1 26.2 8.3
–
Palm Inc (PALM.OQ),USD5.91 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) -1.05 -5.57 0.28
P/E (x) – – 21.2
EV/EBITDA (x) – – 8.3
Research In Motion (RIMM.OQ),USD46.45 Sell
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 2.26 3.18 3.35
P/E (x) 35.6 14.6 13.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 22.3 8.0 7.7
Brightpoint (CELL.OQ),USD4.90 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 0.75 0.13 0.40
P/E (x) 17.9 39.0 12.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.0 3.7 2.6
Qualcomm (QCOM.OQ),USD34.86 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 1.90 1.40 1.87
P/E (x) 23.2 24.9 18.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.3 8.8 6.3
Fundamental: Phones are getting more powerful and need an OS
The computing power of the average cell phone is increasing rapidly; many
smartphones are approaching laptop-like processing capabilities. As phones
become more complicated, they are offering greater functions. Simple operating
systems are no longer able to manage this much complexity. Hardware vendors
cannot or will not develop their own OS, opening the door to new OS vendors
Industry: There are three leading OS vendors, with another four contenders
Symbian, various flavors of Linux, and Microsoft Windows Mobile still have the
most robust OS platforms, as well as the largest installed base. Four others –
Apple, Google Android, Palm and RIM – have viable offerings, but each has its
own strategic flaw. We could even see phones become ‘net-top’ devices in which
sophisticated browsers handle many OS functions. There is no clear winner today.
Thematic: The operating system with the best third-party software wins
History has shown that the OS with the largest pool of applications enjoys a
virtuous cycle and can quickly consolidate share. The mobile OS that can attract
the largest pool of third-party developers has the potential to dominate the field.
Carriers may be able to skew this process slightly, but the returns to scale in the
OS industry are considerable.
Thought-leading: The game remains wide open
Consumers are just beginning to realize the full capabilities of their phones. This
education process will be slow, but leaves the door wide open to change. The
advent of mobile data into daily life is an event horizon, beyond which any OS
vendor could come out ahead. The current incumbents are not guaranteed
continued dominance as buying patterns shift.
Investment options limited, but expect them to grow significantly
This remains a difficult space in which to invest. Most mobile OS offerings are
very small pieces of very large companies. We think Nokia/Symbian has taken the
right approach, and no one should underestimate their capacity for massive
transformation. Google and Apple have both generated significant media attention,
but their commercial success remains an ongoing development. RIM seems to be
distracted, but has an interesting approach to the problem. Palm’s effort remains a
question mark pending the arrival of its new OS. Despite this, the stakes are high
as smartphones move into the netbook and low-end laptop arena, and the mobile
OS addressable market grows strongly in coming years.
Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Investment thesis .....................................................................................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................3
Risks ........................................................................................................................................3
Anarchy in the OS.............................................................................. 4
The mobile OS ..........................................................................................................................4
A quick look at the history of the OS ........................................................................................4
Smartphone estimates..............................................................................................................6
Moving Beyond Cell Phones.....................................................................................................7
OS overview .............................................................................................................................8
Competitive landscape............................................................................................................10
The latest in OS fashions ........................................................................................................11
Mobile OS vendors.......................................................................... 13
Symbian .................................................................................................................................13
Windows Mobile.....................................................................................................................15
Linux ......................................................................................................................................16
The contenders .......................................................................................................................17
Will Apple rule the mobile world? ...........................................................................................17
Google’s Android ....................................................................................................................19
Palm.......................................................................................................................................21
Research in Motion.................................................................................................................22
Everything else........................................................................................................................23
Do we really need an OS?.......................................................................................................24
Conclusion ..............................................................................................................................26
Fragmentation ................................................................................. 28
No future-proofing ..................................................................................................................29
Appendices....................................................................................... 30
Appendix A: M&A history updated................................................ 31
Appendix B: Android first impressions.......................................... 35
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