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• What is changing? We focus on the regional auto sales outlook for
2009. We analyze 1) the timing and the drivers of the third auto boom in
China, and the potential short-term revival of heavy truck demand in
China, as we believe China’s industrial production growth will see a
sharp rebound by 2Q09 due to aggressive monetary easing by the
Chinese government in Sep-08; 2) Korean auto sales, which are likely to
fall below 1 million units for the first time since the 1998 Asian
Financial Crisis; 3) the potential growth drivers for the Indian auto
market, on the back of which we expect a revival of sales growth
momentum in 2H08; 4) the Taiwanese auto market looking for signs of a
recovery; 5) the rapid deceleration of auto sales in Indonesia, which
should continue well into 2009; and 6) the reasons for the negative
outlook on the Malaysian auto sector, including lower GDP growth, a
rising unemployment rate and weakening consumer confidence.
• Information: We discuss 1) 2008’s vehicle sales in China and the
Chinese government’s expected decision to expand consumer credit into
the auto sector in order to boost car sales; 2) the light small vehicle
segment gaining market share in Korea to about 37%; 3) the heating up
of competition in the executive segment with Bajaj and Hero Honda
rolling out 125-135cc bike models; 4) the impact of commodity tax cut
on the auto sales in Taiwan; and 5) Daihatsu’s target to achieve 13%
share in the Indonesian market in 2009.
• Non-consensus calls: We initiated coverage on DongFeng Motor with
an Overweight rating. DongFeng Motor is our top pick in the China auto
sector; we believe the company is well-positioned to ride China’s third
auto boom. We are Underweight on Astra International because we
believe current consensus earnings estimates are too high. A right time
to accumulate Astra would be when vehicle sales start to stabilize, rather
than when interest rates start to decline, in our view.
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[此贴子已经被作者于2009-1-31 14:48:57编辑过]
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