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Faster China Market Growth May
Require Shift of Resources
Chinese Government to Make Major Expenditure for
the Basic Medical Insurance System Reform
Pharmaceuticals
• Expenditure of Rmb850 billion (roughly ¥11 trillion) over three years: On
January 22, the Chinese media including the People’s Daily reported that a
meeting of the State Council chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao approved a
medical reform plan to be implemented between 2009 and 2011. They cite
spending of Rmb850 billion over three years to create a universal medical
insurance system, lower the burden on ordinary citizens and improve access to
basic medical and health services.
• Medical equipment manufacturers to benefit at infrastructure stage: We see
the plan as extending the medical reform measures implemented since 2006. We
think manufacturers of mid- and lower-tier standard medical equipment face
substantial opportunities when Beijing starts to broaden medical insurance to
cover all citizens, build infrastructure (mainly public hospitals) and offer equal
public health services. Sysmex (6869) has a China presence, targeting China
sales’ share of total sales to rise to 8.5% in FY2008. It holds volume shares of
50% for high-end hematology (blood-cell count) equipment and roughly 20%
for low-end equipment, positioning it in our opinion for sustained high, doubledigit
growth. However, we think a forte in systems marketing of high-end
equipment to superior-grade hospitals suggests a possible need to broaden its
business scope. Nihon Kohden (6849) generates only 2% of sales in China, but
it has strengthened its marketing and production structures in FY2008,
suggesting potential growth for products including electrocardiographs,
defibrillators, bedside monitors and hematology equipment.
• Growing patient base supports firm drug demand: China’s medical system
has faced the problem that even if insurance coverage were broadened, an
extremely low benefit ceiling prevented the prescription of drugs other than List
A generics on the insurance list and traditional Chinese remedies. We think any
signs of a change to the ceiling would offer medium- to long-term opportunities
to branded drug manufacturers with a certain level of infrastructure, including
Daiichi Sankyo, Otsuka Pharmaceutical, Astellas Pharma and Eisai. We also
estimate that some mid-tier drug manufacturers without a foothold in the US
could use this opportunity to review plans for establishing a US presence and
rethink how they allocate their resources.
Figure 1: Chinese Drug Market Trend
¥ billion
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