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Tracking global policy stimulus
Fiscal and monetary policy summaries
In this note we provide comprehensive summaries from our regional teams of the
various fiscal and monetary policy stimulus initiatives announced since late 2008.
Given the speed with which these policy stimulus measures are announced,
changed, and enacted we intend to provide periodic updates as circumstances
warrant.
Total fiscal stimulus worth 2.8% of global GDP
The global fiscal stimulus thus far announced amounts to about USD 2¼ trillion, or
approximately 2.8% of global GDP. This incorporates an estimate for a package
worth USD 819 billion from the US, which we assume will be enacted in the
coming weeks.
Fiscal stimulus in 2009 worth 1.9% of global GDP
In many cases, the implementation of announced stimulus remains uncertain and
not all new spending or tax cuts will impact economic activity in 2009. In a bestcase
scenario where much of what has been announced will be implemented
without significant delay, we estimate that a fiscal stimulus worth around USD 1.4
trillion – around 1.9% of global GDP – will arrive in 2009. This is about half a
percentage point higher than the estimate that we made in our previous work at the
end of last year.
Monetary policy gauge
The partial paralysis of the financial sector complicates calculations concerning
monetary policy. But based on real short-term interest rates, the countries that have
seen the greatest degree of monetary easing thus far include many of the smaller
Asian economies (largely thanks to relatively high levels of inflation) along with
Canada, the UK and Australia.
The combined effect
Overall we conclude that the US, Australia, Singapore and South Africa appear
relatively well positioned to experience domestic demand support from their
combined fiscal and monetary policy initiatives. Argentina and Hungary are, in
contrast, poorly positioned.
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