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We analyze current industrial structures, inventory levels and exposure to external demand to see what has changed in China’s ability to weather the global economic crisis this time, compared with the previous downturns in 1998 and 2001. We believe the Chinese economy is in a better position to avoid a hard landing in the short term, but will need to rotate the growth driver to be more domestic-demand driven for sustainable growth close to the trend level of 9.5%-10% year on year over the medium to long term. Policy stimuli will likely boost growth in the next few quarters, but eventually will have to shift towards rebalancing the economic structure over the long term.
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