2009.2.8 3034 聯詠 CITI

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2009.2.8  3034 聯詠 CITI 11 pages

Re-iterate Buy — Novatek had a prolonged down-cycle due to weak panel andmonitor demand. While op. margin will trend lower in 1Q09, it now has achance to win outsourced Japanese orders, and will remain as a key supplier tothe TFT supply chain. With leveraged effect on driver restocking when theTaiwan panel makers see recovery, we re-iterate our Buy (1M) on Novatek. 

What's new — Sales reached a low of NT$904mn in Jan 09, down 67% yoy, asIT demand remains weak. However, we are starting to see some rush orders resurfacing,as panel makers prepare to resume production by late 1Q. Catalysts for full recovery — We believe several fronts must stabilize before afull recovery on display drivers: 1) inventory overhang must be digested fully in1H09; 2) KRW to stabilize while NTD to maintain weak, which will help Taiwanpanel makers see better utilization rates; 3) Significant orders from Japan,which can use Novatek's products to help alleviate rising cost in yen. 

Order uncertainty lingers — With the sharp fall in consumer demand, TFT-LCDmakers may continue to see both production cut and rush orders asmanufacturers tune their production output to manage excess capacity. As acomponent maker with its low levels of inventory, Novatek may face morevolatility until demand catches up with the overcapacity among panel makers.

 Lowering estimates — We are cutting our 2008/2009/10E EPS estimates furtherby 10%, 29% and 30% to NT$6.12, NT$2.87 and NT$3.02, respectively, toreflect lower sales outlook and higher operating expenses.

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