BNP百富勤：亚太石化行业研究报告2009年2月

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Asian margins contract (No surprise)
Asia refining margins
Singapore complex refining margins contracted this week, much as we
had warned in our previous edition. This week’s margin came back down
to USD4.61/bbl after reaching USD7.93/bbl the week before. The global
pick up in margins in Mid-January was supported by slim wholesale
refined fuel inventory against prompt oil being pushed down as inventories
(most notably at cushing) piled up to 20+ year highs. This caused sudden
drops in crude vs. fairly steady wholesale / retail prices, and effectively
widened the US gasoline crack. The US gasoline crack, in turn, and via
arbitrage, tends to provide support for global gasoline cracks. A pick up in
crude prices and a simultaneous trimming of gasoline caused cracks to
contract, pulling margins back. Cold weather in parts of the US kept gasoil
cracks resilient, which provided support for US margins relative to global
margins.
Singapore simple margins are back in the red, and with little hope for
improvement. Simple margins declined to -USD1.79/bbl this week after a
brief appearance in the black last week at USD0.50/bbl. We maintain that
some of Asia’s simple refiners are likely to see bankruptcy in 2009.
BNP Paribas Global Energy Team will host a conference
call on Wednesday, 4 February 2009, 17:30 (HK) / 09:30
(London).
􀂃 Harry Tchilinguirian, BNP Paribas' Senior Oil Market Analyst (bio
below) will discuss BNPP’s views on:
􀂃 The outlook for 2009 oil prices.
􀂃 The currently steep contango, Brent / WTI spreads, and what this
means for oil markets.
􀂃 Recent refining margin increases and their viability.
􀂃 Amit Shah will call in live from Cairn India’s Rajasthan block, which
he will be visiting with Cairn management. Amit heads BNPP’s India
Energy Research and will brief investors on Cairns latest
developments on the Rajasthan block.
􀂃 Bradley Way, and Anshul Trivedi, BNP Paribas Equity Derivatives,
will discuss equity market valuations, as well as derivative and Delta
One solutions for gaining exposure to Asia’s oil & gas equities.
Contents
Global Oil & Gas Equity Valuations Page 2-3
Refining margins Page 4-5
Crack spreads Page 6-7
Oil spreads Page 8-9
Tanker rates Page 10
Petchem spreads Page 11-14

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