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ASEAN Strategy
After the crash
ASEAN Strategy
While cracks are beginning to show,
Southeast Asia is holding up relatively
well a year into the global downturn.
Singapore may be mired in a deep
recession, but its more domesticallyoriented
neighbors continue to grow.
Time to revisit?
DB's ASEAN strategists discuss 2009 prospects for their respective markets
Anton Periquet, M.Sc
Deutsche Regis Partners, Inc.
Strategist
(63) 2 894 6636
anton.periquet@db.com
Su-Yin Teoh
Strategist
(60) 3 2053 6770
su-yin.teoh@db.com
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
This research has been prepared in association with Deutsche Regis Partners, Inc. The opinions contained in this report are those
of Deutsche Regis Partners, Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
ASEAN Strategists
Heriyanto Irawan (Indonesia) +62 21 318-9521
Gregory Lui (Singapore) +65 6423-5958
Anton Periquet (Philippines) +63(2) 894-6636
Su-Yin,Teoh (Malaysia) +603 2053-6770
Poramet Tongbua (Thailand) +66 2 633-6474
Key Economic Forecasts
Indonesia 2008E 2009E 2010E
GDP Growth (%) 6.0 4.5 5.0
EPS Growth (%) 13.3 -9.6 4.1
PE (x) 12.7 7.9 7.9
P/BV (x) 1.9 1.7 1.5
Malaysia 2008E 2009E 2010E
GDP Growth (%) 5.3 3.0 4.5
EPS Growth (%) -3.4 -12.9 -11.3
PE (x) 15.3 12.4 11.2
P/BV (x) 1.7 1.6 1.5
Philippines 2008E 2009E 2010E
GDP Growth (%) 4.6 3.3 4.3
EPS Growth (%) -5.9 13.7 11.7
PE (x) 14.1 8.5 7.9
P/BV (x) 1.4 1.3 1.4
Singapore 2008E 2009E 2010E
GDP Growth (%) 0.7 -4.5 2.5
EPS Growth (%) 3.6 -19.0 5.7
PE (x) 14.1 10.8 10.0
P/BV (x) 1.1 1.0 1.0
Thailand 2008E 2009E 2010E
GDP Growth (%) 4.5 1.5 4.2
EPS Growth (%) 5.7 -7.1 12.2
PE (x) 12.4 8.0 7.0
P/BV (x) 1.1 1.0 0.9
Global Markets Research Company
No panic, post-crash – ex-Singapore, ASEAN remains stable
Signs of panic are few and far between in the ASEAN region, or at least so far. Ex-
Singapore, the ASEAN economies are still growing, albeit at significantly belowtrend
rates. Domestic demand is getting a lift from falling inflation, sharper-thanexpected
rate cuts and government stimulus packages. Banks are still in relatively
good shape, and political risk has not worsened. In a regional context, the ASEAN
resembles the proverbial oasis of calm.
Indonesia and Philippines in better shape than expected; Singapore weakest
The smaller markets, Indonesia and the Philippines, appear relatively insulated
from the sharp decline in external activity. The marked macro improvement in
Indonesia has been encouraging, and bank lending and overseas worker
remittances in the Philippines are still growing in the double-digits. Yet these
markets have been penalized with blanket de-ratings. Singapore, on the other
hand, is heading into the worst recession in its history; its currency also looks
increasingly vulnerable. Malaysia remains expensive at a 12-18% P/E valuation
premium to the region. Thailand is a potential ‘bargain’ now that the market is
trading at or close to Asian crisis P/B valuations, with 72% of stocks below book.
Further earnings risk in 2Q as 1Q reporting season kicks off
We should see the worst sets of financials in April/May, when the 1Q09 reporting
season kicks-off. It is at that juncture that we expect the buying window to
reopen, as earnings risks resurface and possibly trigger another round of
downgrades. We recommend sticking with defensive large caps given the risk of
falling liquidity and renewed market weakness in 2Q. The ASEAN bloc is trading at
a 38% and 8% discount to the North Asian markets for 2009E and 2010E,
respectively, arguably fair for smaller emerging markets in this volatile
environment. From a top-down perspective, DB is Overweight Indonesia and
Thailand; Neutral Philippines and Singapore; and Underweight Malaysia.
Top Buys:
SingTel, DBS, Advance Info Services, Unilever Indonesia, BRI, PLUS, Genting, BEC
World and PNOC-Energy Development Corp.
Top Sells:
Singapore Airlines, Sime Darby, Astra Agro, Cosco Corp, Petron Corp, SP Setia,
and Bumi Resources.
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