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1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接
Financial Markets: lecture given by George Soros at Central European University
https://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/sites/default/files/george-soros-financial-markets-transcript.pdf
2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
“So here it goes. I contend that the puncturing of the subprime bubble in 2007 set off the explosion of a super-bubble, much as an ordinary bomb sets off a nuclear explosion. The housing bubble in the United States was the most common kind, distinguished only by the widespread use of collateralized debt obligations and other synthetic instruments. Behind this ordinary bubble there was a much larger super-bubble growing over a longer period of time which was much more peculiar. “
“The prevailing trend in this super-bubble was the ever increasing use of credit and leverage. The prevailing misconception was the belief that financial markets are self correcting and should be left to their own devices. President Reagan called it the magic of the marketplace, and I call it market fundamentalism. It became the dominant creed in the 1980s when Ronald Reagan was President of the United States and Margaret Thatcher was Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.”
“What made the super-bubble so peculiar was the role that financial crises played in making it grow. Since the belief that markets could be safely left to their own devices was false, the super-bubble gave rise to a series of financial crises. The first and most serious one was the international banking crisis of 1982. This was followed by many other crises, the most notable being the portfolio insurance debacle in October 1987, the savings and loan crisis that unfolded in various episodes between 1989 and 1994, the emerging market crisis of 1997/1998, and the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2000. Each time a financial crisis occurred; the authorities intervened, merged away or otherwise took care of the failing financial institutions, and applied monetary and fiscal stimuli to protect the economy.”
3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
索罗斯的反射理论果然精辟啊。其实因为市场并不是完美的，泡沫一直都存在，由于种种原因（政府的干预，以及投资者的热情和贪婪的人性）泡沫没有破裂。如果泡沫不破，人们就会认为很安全，人们认为安全的时候就会放纵贪婪的欲望。这样泡沫就会一直胀大，泡沫越是没破，表面上经济就越显得奇好无比。人们就越认为“你看，说了没有泡沫吧，这么好的投资机会，赶快入市抢钱啊!”人们越是这么认为泡沫就越张越大。等到满足泡沫成长条件的因素消失的时候人们就开始恐惧，泡沫就会突然破裂。
但是经济泡沫的破裂由于种种原因，有时候是破一部分，留待下次再多破些。有时候是直接破一大部分。无论如何索罗斯认为08年的经济危机的泡沫其实从80年代就开始堆积成长了，82年的国际银行业危机，87年10月的“黑色星期一”，98年亚洲金融危机，以及 2000年左右的互联网泡沫都导致这个大泡沫破裂了一部分。而08年的次贷危机只是导致这个大泡沫破裂的导火索，而如果你要问08年的泡沫是否全部破了？大概只有上帝才知道，估计没有，只要市场上还存在大量的债务，也就是太多倍的杠杆，那么就还潜藏着泡沫，今后什么时候破，破多少，估计也只有上帝才能给出完全的答案。
所以投资者要么像 Ray Dalio 那样独立自主研发一个什么 All Weather Fund 的投资组合，在什么时候都不亏钱；要么像 索罗斯 和 Marc Faber那样能判断大概什么时候有经济危机，该出手时就出手，出手早了一点点也还是会赚的；要么像 巴菲特 那样，从不借贷，只利用免费的float 来投资，如果找不到很多企业的的市值远远低于其股票内在价值的时候就不买，流出很多现金，在经济危机，大家都最需要现金的时候，去挽救那些相当有前途的企业（等到央行狂印钞票的时候就晚了）。
4.昨日你阅读的时间量（小时计算，如0.5小时）
1小时
5.你参与活动至今的总时间量（小时计算，如20小时）
10.5小时
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