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We downgrade Kernel to HOLD and lower our target price
from PLN45 to PLN19.8. We downgrade Astarta from Buy to
HOLD, with a lower PLN8.2 target price (previously PLN50.4).
We have changed our valuation methodology to two years’ distressed target
multiples. Our model assumptions are changed by lower soft commodity
price forecasts, cessation of agricultural project expansions and forex losses.
We see long-term value in both companies, underpinned by our
bullish long-term view of soft commodity prices, the companies’ exclusively
local asset bases, including land banks, as well as low local costs.
We are HOLDers of both companies owing to Ukrainian-specific risks
and the high sensitivity of earnings to hryvna devaluation (underpinned by a
strong possibility of further devaluation). Soft commodities are still trading
above their long-term average and the sustainability of new price levels has yet
to be proved. We believe both Kernel and Astarta, trading at 10.4x and 5.4x
2010F PER, are fairly valued compared with their peers.
We prefer Kernel over Astarta, as its intermediary nature gives some
protection from fluctuations in soft commodity prices and currency. We also
like its control over the agriculture infrastructure, including its largest private
storage capacities and grain terminal.
Contents
Investment summary 3
Valuation 8
Market outlook 12
Kernel 17
Astarta 22
Macro overview 26
Disclosures Appendix 29
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