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The Big Ugly Experiment
The Roadmap for Asia in this Recession
Asia Pacific Equity Strategy
Adrian MowatAC
(852) 2800-8599
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
Sunil GargAC
(852) 2800-8518
sunil.garg@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
Rajiv Batra
(91-22) 6695 3224
rajiv.j.batra@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
Rohan Ghalla
(91-22) 6719-8289
rohan.d.ghalla@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
See page 31 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision. Customers of J.P. Morgan in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies
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Figure 1: Asia relative to the world
90
110
130
150
170
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
APx J / World
EM Asia / World
Source: Datastream, MSCI. 23 February 2009.
• Asian economies and companies are in uncharted waters. The “big ugly
experiment” is whether aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus can
offset the impact of the deepest consumer recession in developed
economies since WWII.
• In this report J.P. Morgan's country and sector heads lay out their
expectations and the data points they are tracking. Future reports will
focus on tracking the data. Broadly, we are looking for stabilization in
external demand and for pro-growth policies to boost domestic demand.
• Trade data remain very poor, with both imports and exports declining
double digits. The decline in nominal imports is partly a function of
sharp falls in commodity prices. The terms of trade benefit is potentially
stimulative.
• After increasing PMIs for three months, initial data for February suggest
another down leg in external demand. However, US and UK retail sales
do suggest some stabilization.
• The trend in domestic demand data ex-China is weak. This is consistent
with China moving to pro-growth policies earlier than other Asian
countries. China is due to release combined January and February data
on 10 March.
Table of Contents
Regional Strategy Team...........................................................5
Banks.........................................................................................6
Real Estate ................................................................................7
Technology ...............................................................................8
China Industrials/Autos .........................................................10
Utilities and Infrastructure.....................................................12
China Steel..............................................................................13
India Metals & Mining.............................................................14
Oil and Gas .............................................................................15
Telecom...................................................................................16
Transportation ........................................................................17
China Small Caps ...................................................................18
Australia ..................................................................................19
China .......................................................................................20
Korea .......................................................................................21
Taiwan .....................................................................................22
India .........................................................................................23
Singapore................................................................................24
Indonesia.................................................................................25
Thailand...................................................................................26
Philippines ..............................................................................27
Extended markers ..................................................................28
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