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CEEMEA Equity Strategy
CEEMEA Equity Strategy
Deanne GordonAC
(27-21) 712-0875
deanne.gordon@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Equities Ltd.
Peter Westin
(7-495) 967-1771
peter.westin@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Bank International LLC
Jason Swartz, CFA
(27-11) 507-0397
jason.v.swartz@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Equities Ltd.
Rohan Ghalla
(91-22) 6719-8289
rohan.d.ghalla@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
See page 61 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
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• We continue to flag growth risks and currency woes in the region.
Within CEEMEA we believe South Africa and Turkey are relative
safe havens given more policy levers to deal with domestic recessionary
conditions, while CE-3 policymakers are in a straitjacket.
• We are OW South Africa, Neutral Turkey and UW Russia & CE-3.
• Aggressive rate cut action in Turkey makes it appealing to upweight, but
it appears to be a crowded trade and we remain concerned about earnings
growth disappointments. We stay Neutral Turkey.
• While we remain UW Russia on expectations of further Ruble
weakness and monetary tightening, we have added Rosneft to our
model portfolio to start closing the relative underweight.
• Stay OW SA given its low beta characteristics, scope for aggressive rate
cuts of 350bp, deep domestic investor pool underpin and cash-flush
corporate balance sheets. We continue to recommend OW SA Gold in
the current grim global backdrop
• Our key trades in CEEMEA:
o OW SA Gold Healthcare, Cash Retailers, Telcos and Banks.
o Neutral Turkey with exposure to defensives such as Telcos and
Consumer Staples.
o In Russia we shift out of Sberbank and add Rosneft, increasing our
high beta exposure.
• Top stock picks: Shoprite, Woolworths, Firstrand, Absa, Aspen,
Harmony, Anglogold, BIM, Turk Telekom, Garanti.
Table of Contents
Whtz cheap, and whtz not ! .....................................................4
Return on Equity Analysis.......................................................8
Asset allocation changes ......................................................21
Model portfolio changes ........................................................23
CEEMEA Model Portfolio by Country ...................................24
CEEMEA Model Portfolio by Sector......................................25
Key Trades ..............................................................................27
Key Risks ................................................................................34
Market drivers.........................................................................43
Russia: Economic slowdown intensifies .............................46
South Africa: Rotating ...........................................................48
Poland: Slow, but not cheap .................................................50
Turkey: Remain defensive .....................................................52
Consensus asset allocation ..................................................55
Hindsight trades .....................................................................56
CEEMEA30..............................................................................58
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