<p>Telecom and Cable<br/>SECTOR REVIEW<br/>So Far So Good<br/>In this report we review the key takeaways from the quarter, which comprise<br/>four major themes:<br/>(1) The downturn in the economic cycle began to show some impact on the<br/>wireless segment although there was no noticeable impact on cable<br/>performance. For wireless, two trends appeared that are partially the result of<br/>economic weakness and partially a function of increased competitive intensity<br/>among the discount brands. The first is that wireless voice ARPU decelerated<br/>fairly sharply at Telus (-8.5% y/y) and Rogers (-1.6% y/y). Carriers indicated that<br/>lower out-of-bucket usage, lower long distance usage and reduced roaming<br/>activity occurred in the quarter. While the downturn in voice ARPU was clearly<br/>visible in the quarter, it is not clear that it was primarily related to economic<br/>conditions since Bell Canada recorded a stable overall ARPU trend (+2% y/y) in<br/>contrast to Rogers and Telus. Accordingly, Bell’s performance suggests that the<br/>downturn in wireless voice ARPU at Rogers and Telus is largely related to rising<br/>competitive intensity in the discount segment. Nonetheless, we believe wireless<br/>ARPU will be increasingly impacted by a weak economy and have reflected<br/>such in our projections for 2009.<br/>(2) Subscriber Trends – What appeared as if some cyclical aspect may have<br/>affected Rogers’ telephony and broadband growth at the start of the reporting<br/>season, by the end of the reporting season it appeared more likely that the<br/>natural maturation of some cable segments and a lack of performance in the<br/>telephony market. Overall Shaw and Quebecor reported continued strong cable<br/>subscriber trends with Shaw posting its best ever quarter (period ended Nov.<br/>30th) of RGU net additions. Prepaid wireless subscriber growth dropped<br/>significantly to a 3% pace in Q4 from 6% in Q3 and 8% in H1/08, which we<br/>attribute to greater discount brand market share for postpaid services.<br/>(3) ARPU Trends – Cable ARPU trends continued along their recent trajectories<br/>in Q4 with no visible change. The exception was Shaw’s revenue per RGU<br/>growth decelerated to +0.6% y/y from its earlier pace of +3%-4%. Shaw had<br/>record RGU growth and we suspect the decline in ARPU growth is related to the<br/>timing of the growth in the quarter. All cable operators announced cable and<br/>broadband pricing increases for 2009. Wireless voice ARPU pressure<br/>accelerated in the quarter.<br/>(4) Liquidity profiles and balance sheets remained relatively unchanged in the<br/>quarter. Overall sector constituents have strong liquidity profiles and balance<br/>sheets with minimal debt maturities in 2009 and sufficient cash and credit<br/>facilities to handle 2010 maturities. The greatest level of maturing debt is at Bell<br/>Canada with $1.5 billion in 2009 and $0.9 billion in 2010, although it ended 2008<br/>with $3 billion in cash on hand.</p><p>Table of contents<br/>Outlook 3<br/>Theme 1: Economic Cycle Hits Certain Segments 4<br/>Theme 2: Subscriber Trends 5<br/>Trend 3: ARPU Trends 7<br/>Trend 4: Liquidity Profiles and Balance Sheets 9<br/>Wireless Key Metrics 10<br/>Subscribers 11<br/>Subscribers (Continued) 12<br/>Wireless Penetration 13<br/>U.S. &amp; Canada Comparisons 14<br/>Finances 15<br/>Finances (Continued) 16<br/>ARPU 17<br/>Pricing and Subscriber Value 18<br/>Acquisition Costs 19<br/>Retention Costs 20<br/>Capital Intensity 21<br/>Video Highlights 22<br/>Broadband Highlights 25<br/>Telephony Highlights 28</p><p></p><p>
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