中银国际-2009 Property Strategy-Warm policies in a cold winter

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2009 Property Strategy

Warm policies in a cold winter

China’s 2009 economic outlook is filled with uncertainty.

Growth pressure will bring about policy shifts for both the

macro-economy and the property sector, and excessive

liquidity may come back to the capital market. We anticipate

more policy changes this year, but given the longer time

needed to address the supply-demand imbalance, the

unattractive valuation of property stocks and the overall

economic gloom, we reiterate out NEUTRAL rating for the

sector.

Key Factors for Rating

􀂄 While ordinary residential housing demand is likely to

recover, overall demand should not grow significantly in

2009, but should pick up in 2010. We expect that the

cumulative inventory level will peak in mid‐ or late‐2009,

and a reasonable supply‐demand ratio should be achieved

in 2011.

􀂄 The sector will be policy‐driven in 2009. To date, the

government’s policies have been relatively moderate and

aimed at bolstering end‐user demand. Any additional

stimulus measures will depend greatly on the economic

performance and outlook in China.

􀂄 Due to the potential poor 2008 results of China developers

and the risk of lower transaction volume after the recent

rebound, we expect the China developer sector to

underperform the market between late 1Q09 and early

2Q09. In view of the expected recovery in demand,

increased provisions to lessen risk, large companies’

renewed ability to secure equity financing, and major

merger and acquisition (M&A) opportunities during the

current downturn, the sector’s turning point may come as

early as 2H09.

Top Buy: ............

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关键词：property POLICIES Strategy Strateg winter property POLICIES 中银 winter cold