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全球化真的提高了各国商业周期的协同性吗？？？


Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization?


Abstract： This paper assesses the strength of business cycle synchronization between 1950 and 2014 in asample of 21 countries using a new quarterly dataset based on IMF archival data. Contrary to thecommon wisdom, we find that the globalization period is not associated with more outputsynchronization at the global level. The world business cycle was as strong during Bretton Woods(1950-1971) than during the Globalization period (1984-2006). Although globalization did notaffect the average level of co-movement, trade and financial integration strongly affect the waycountries co-move with the rest of the world. We find that financial integration de-synchronizesnational outputs from the world cycle, although the magnitude of this effect depends crucially onthe type of shocks hitting the world economy. This de-synchronizing effect has offset thesynchronizing impact of other forces, such as increased trade integration.   wp1654.pdf (1.66 MB)

2016-3-9 11:07:36 上传

尽管全球化没有提高协同性的平均水平，但贸易和金融全球化却带来了深远影响！！！

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关键词：工作论文 IMF Integration Increased financial 论文

中规中矩，好！

上干货了！

非常感谢分享

zounghy 发表于 2016-3-9 13:00
上干货了！

最近学校事情比较多，没有太多时间上网！

huholi 发表于 2016-3-9 13:11
非常感谢分享

[handshake]

Captain-CUI 发表于 2016-3-9 11:11
全球化真的提高了各国商业周期的协同性吗？？？

一看标题就很牛。

mj2012 发表于 2016-3-10 06:22
一看标题就很牛。

[titter]

Captain-CUI 发表于 2016-3-9 11:11
全球化真的提高了各国商业周期的协同性吗？？？

多谢分享！