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Tonnage gold demand in the first quarter of 2009 was up a strong 38%
on the levels of a year earlier.In$US value terms,this represented a 36%
rise to$29.7bn.Global economic conditions continued to take their toll on
jewellery and industrial demand while underpinning safe haven demand
from investors.
The gold price averaged$US908.41 during Q1,down 2%on the Q1 2008
average.However,this relatively flat result in$US terms masks significant
gains in local currency terms for consumers in several key countries,
including India and Turkey.
The biggest source of growth in demand for gold was investment.
Identifiable investment demand reached 595.9 tonnes in Q1,up 248%from
171.3 tonnes in Q1 2008.Taking into account inferred investment,which in
the first quarter largely reflected investor flows into bullion accounts,total
investment off-take reached 711.2 tonnes,up 173%on the levels of a year
earlier.
Jewellery demand in Q1 was 24%below year-earlier levels.Most countries
suffered a decline as consumers responded to the high gold price(record
levels in some countries)and difficult economic conditions.The only
countries to record positive growth were China and Hong Kong.
Industrial demand also suffered under the pressure of extremely weak
economic conditions.Demand was 31%lower than year-earlier levels,with
the electronics sector the main contributor to this decline.
The weakness in jewellery and industrial demand was more than offset by
very strong investor inflows.Identifiable investment in Q1 was up 248%on
year-earlier levels.
ETFs were the main contributor to these investor flows.The quarterly inflow
totalled 465.1 tonnes,up 540%on 72.7 tonnes a year earlier.This marked
a change on the second half of 2008,when bar and coin demand was the
biggest driver of investment.
Nevertheless,bar and coin demand remained extremely strong during Q1.
Net retail investment totalled 130.8 tonnes,up 33%on the levels of Q1 2008.
These flows largely represented the balance of dishoarding in non-western
markets and large positive investment in western markets.
The dishoarding that occurred in non-western markets during the quarter,
which was motivated primarily by a desire to realise profits,was driven
largely by two countries-India(-17.0 tonnes)and Thailand(-19.9 tonnes).
Only two non-western markets recorded higher levels of bar hoarding than
in Q1 2008-China and Hong Kong.The single biggest contributor to the
inflows globally was Germany,totalling 59.0 tonnes in Q1.
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