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英文文献：Peach Prices In California In The Presence Of Technological Change In The Agricultural Pesticide Industry-在加州桃子价格存在农业农药工业技术变革
英文文献作者：Adams, Jaime Coakley,MacNair, Douglas J.,Bingham, Matthew F.,Hostetter, Leigh
英文文献摘要：
The potentially adverse effects of pesticides in wide use are causing concern to grow in the agricultural community. Minimizing the risks to human health and the environment created by agricultural pesticides has become a very important issue. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has set a high priority on registering safer pesticides. According to the EPA, more than 1 billion pounds of active pesticide ingredients are used in the United States each year. Americans are exposed to pesticides every day through food consumption, cleaning products, and home and work environments. The agricultural pesticide industry has experienced an influx of changes during the past decade. Two of the primary changes affecting the pesticide industry are the introduction of new technology and EPA regulatory changes. On the regulatory front, the EPA requires manufacturers to register and test pesticides before they appear on the market. By 2006, the EPA will review old pesticides to ensure that they meet new safety requirements. These regulatory initiatives have contributed to the industry drive to develop safer and more "environmentally friendly" products for use in agricultural pest control. Technological changes consist of the introduction of new pesticides that are considered to be safer for both humans and the environment. As new technologies and regulatory initiatives are undertaken to ensure an improvement in both the safety of human health and the environment, one must consider how these changes may affect consumers. Specifically, an analysis should be conducted to determine whether or not the technological and regulatory changes have an effect on consumer prices. The recent developments in the agricultural pesticide industry provide several reasons to believe structural change has been occurring in economic relationships that determine peach prices in California. Therefore, we use a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to forecast peach prices by allowing parameters to vary with time. VAR models differ from standard econometric analyses of structural relationships in that they do not apply the usual exclusion restrictions to specify a priori which variables appear in which equations. Instead, a set of distributed lag equations is used to model each variable as a function of other variables in the structural system (Bessler, 1984). The objective of this paper is to forecast peach prices and evaluate dynamic relationships in the peach industry in the presence of technological and regulatory change. A VAR model that explicitly recognizes structural change will be used to forecast peach prices in California. Changes in dynamic relationships between peach prices and relevant economic variables will be considered.
广泛使用杀虫剂的潜在不利影响正在引起农业界的关注。最大限度地降低农业杀虫剂对人类健康和环境造成的风险已成为一个非常重要的问题。美国环境保护署(EPA)已经对更安全的杀虫剂进行了优先登记。根据美国环保署的数据，美国每年要使用超过10亿磅的活性农药成分。美国人每天在食物消费、清洁产品、家庭和工作环境中都接触到杀虫剂。农业杀虫剂工业在过去十年中经历了大量变化。影响杀虫剂工业的两项主要变化是新技术的引进和环境保护局规章制度的变化。在监管方面，环保署要求制造商在农药上市前进行注册和测试。到2006年，环保署将对旧农药进行审查，以确保它们符合新的安全要求。这些规管措施有助于推动业界发展更安全和更环保的农业病虫害防治产品。技术变革包括引进被认为对人类和环境都更安全的新杀虫剂。在采取新技术和管制措施以确保改善人类健康和环境安全的同时，必须考虑这些变化可能对消费者产生的影响。具体地说，应该进行分析，以确定技术和管制方面的变化是否会对消费者价格产生影响。农业杀虫剂工业的最近发展提供了几个理由来相信结构变化已经发生在决定加州桃子价格的经济关系中。因此，我们使用向量自回归(VAR)模型，通过允许参数随时间变化来预测桃子价格。VAR模型不同于结构关系的标准计量经济学分析，因为它们不应用通常的排除限制来预先指定哪些变量出现在哪些方程中。相反，一组分布滞后方程被用来作为结构系统中其他变量的函数来建模每个变量(Bessler, 1984)。本文的目的是预测桃子价格和评估动态关系，在存在的技术和法规变化的桃子产业。一个明确认识到结构变化的VAR模型将被用于预测加州的桃子价格。桃子价格与相关经济变量之间的动态关系的变化将被考虑。
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