斯坦福大学教授麦金农论文之三 After the Crisis

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危机之后，亚洲回归美元本位制：解释高频汇率的盯住美元，After the Crisis, The East Asian Dollar Standard Resurrected: An Interpretation of High Frequency Exchange Rate Pegging，Ronald I. McKinnon，发表于 Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research inWorking Papers         042001，May 2001.

Abstract

For more than adecade before the great crisis of 1997-98, East Asian countries pegged"softly" to the U.S. dollar. In the period of currency chaos from mid1997 through 1998 with exchange depreciations in eight East Asiancountries, massive deflationary pressure in dollar terms which wasunleashed in the whole East Asian region. Surprisingly, however, thepost-crisis exchange rate regime in 1999 into 2000 again exhibits highfrequency pegging to the dollar much like the pre-crisis regime. In1999-2000, there was (is) a "honeymoon" effect where short-term ratesof interest in the crisis economies remained unusually low so that hotmoney flows were temporarily muted. But this honeymoon will end as thecrisis recedes in time. Finally, I explore how the informal "rules ofthe game" under which the East Asian dollar standard operates might beimproved to (1) lengthen the term structure of finance-includingexchange rate obligations-to make the system more resilient, and (2)tighten bank regulation so as to reduce moral hazard in internationalcapital flows.

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关键词：Crisis 斯坦福大学 After ISIS 大学教授 Ronald McKinnon

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