瑞士信贷：欧洲电信行业研究报告2009年4月

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European Telecoms
PRE RESULTS COMMENT
Q1 2009 results preview
We still expect around 10% downside to consensus 2009 EPS for the sector as
operators see growing impact from the broader economy. We expect Q1 results to
show a deeper economic impact in the ‘problem markets’ (e.g., Spain, UK) already
identified in our European Telecoms Q2 update, dated 3 April, and for the impact to
spread to new markets, particularly CEE. We expect fixed line to remain resilient,
while IT services is expected to show only modest economy effects, due to lag factors.
Meanwhile, we expect the structural trends behind the scenes to favour wireline, with
the inflexion in wireline pricing continuing, European mobile seeing continuing
competitive and regulatory pressure and with emerging mobile maturing.
We expect Vodafone (OP, p/t 150p) to report 3/09E results and 3/10E guidance
broadly in line with consensus, having guided down already on euro margins. We
expect economic pressures to grow, but with no more impact than already reflected in
our forecasts, which are in line with consensus. We expect Telefonica (OP p/t

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 瑞士信贷 行业研究 电信行业 研究报告 信贷 电信 欧洲 瑞士

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