名校博士论文 Trade job market papers (2016-2017)

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Trade JMPs (2016-2017)
By Jdingel
Another November, another job market. Who’s on the market in trade this year? As I have for the last six years, I focus on trade, neglecting international finance and open-economy macro. The distribution is a bit uneven this year — some schools have zero candidates, while UC Davis has six. If I’ve missed someone, please contribute to the list in the comments.

Akira Sasahara (UC Davis) – Why Does Regional Income Inequality Sometimes Increase and Sometimes Decrease?: Theory and Evidence
Andrés J. Maggi (Princeton) – The Impact of Productivity Growth in China on the Brazilian Economy
Carolina Pan (Brandeis) – From Ideas to Trade
Chang Sun (Princeton) – Factor-biased Multinational Production
Daniela Viana Costa (Minnesota) – Export Composition, Terms of Trade, and GDP fluctuations.
David Tsirekidze (Stanford) – Global Supply Chains, Trade Agreements and Rules of Origin
François de Soyres (Toulouse) – Value Added and Productivity Linkages Across Countries
Leandro Freylejer (Toronto) – Product Quality Information and Trade: A Dynamic Approach to the Extensive Margin of Trade
Ildikó Magyari (Columbia) – Firm Reorganization, Chinese Imports, and US Manufacturing Employment
Ilhyun Cho (UC Davis) – Offshoring and Labor Share in Manufacturing Industries in Developed Countries
Inga Heiland (Munich) – Global Risk Sharing Through Trade in Goods and Assets: Theory and Evidence
Jingting Fan (Maryland) – Talent, Geography, and Offshore R&D
Jiwon Lee (UC Davis) – Counterfeiting and the Pricing Behavior of the Authentic Firm
Joseph Vavrus (Colorado) – Local Access to Credit and International Trade
Kan Yue (Purdue) – Estimating Import Quality: Do Countries Agree on Rankings?
Luca Macedoni (UC Davis) – Large Multiproduct Exporters Across Rich and Poor Countries: Theory and Evidence
Masha Brussevich (Purdue) – Does Trade Liberalization Narrow the Gender Wage Gap? The Role of Sectoral Mobility
Martin Alfaro (Aarhus) – The Strategic Value of Large Domestic Firms: Theory and Evidence
Matthew Grant (Yale) – Why Special Economic Zones? Using Trade Policy to Discriminate Across Importers
Meredith Startz (Yale) – The value of face-to-face: Search and contracting frictions in Nigerian trade
Nan Xu (Colorado) – Per Capita Income, Taste for Quality, and Exports Across Countries
Sandile Hlatshwayo (Berkeley) – Heterogeneity in Responses to Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from European Firms
Se Mi Park (Colorado) – Global Sourcing Patterns, Commercial Arbitration Regimes, and Relationship-Specific Transactions
Seth Kingery (Michigan) – Radiating Trade: Gravity Through Spatial Geometry
Sharat Ganapati (Yale) – The Modern Wholesaler: Global Sourcing, Domestic Distribution, and Scale Economies
Shekhar Tomar (Toulouse) – Gains from Agricultural Market Reform: Natural Experiment from India
Suprabha Baniya (Purdue) – The Effects of Timeliness on the Trade Pattern between Primary and Processed Goods
Syed Uddin (FIU) – Value-added Trade, Exchange Rate Pass-Through, and Trade Elasticity: Revisiting Trade Competitiveness
Tao Liu (UC Davis) – Trade Finance and International Currency: A Monetary Search Approach
Vladimir Tyazhelnikov (UC Davis) – Production Clustering and Offshoring
Woan Foong Wong (Wisconsin) – The Round Trip Effect: Endogenous Transport Costs and International Trade
Yang Xu (Maryland) – Structural Change and Skill Premium in a Quantitative Model of Trade
Yuta Takahashi (Northwestern) – Trade imbalances and their distributional consequences
Zheli He (Columbia) – Trade and Real Incomes of the Rich and Poor: Cross-Country Evidence

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“Firm Reorganization, Chinese Imports, and US Manufacturing Employment” Link



Abstract What is the impact of Chinese imports on employment of US manufacturing firms? Previous papers have found a negative effect of Chinese imports on employment in US manufacturing establishments, industries, and regions. However, I show theoretically and empirically that the impact of offshoring on firms - which can be thought of as collections of establishments - differ from the impact on individual establishments, because offshoring reduces costs at the firm level. These cost reductions can result in firms expanding their total manufacturing employment in industries in which the US had a comparative advantage relative to China, even as specific establishments within the firm shrink. Using novel data on firms from the US Census Bureau, I show that the data support this view: US firms expanded manufacturing employment as reorganization toward less exposed industries in response to increased Chinese imports in US output and input markets allowed them to reduce the cost of production. More exposed firms expanded employment by 2 percent more per year as they hired more (i) production workers in manufacturing, whom they paid higher wages, and (ii) in services complementary to high-skilled and high-tech manufacturing, such as R&D, design, engineering, and headquarters services. In other words, although Chinese imports may have reduced employment within some establishments, these losses were more than offset by gains in employment within the same firms. Contrary to conventional wisdom, firms exposed to greater Chinese imports created more manufacturing and nonmanufacturing jobs than non-exposed firms. In contrast to many other countries, the U.S. does not have a national curriculum, leaving states, school districts, or even individual schools free to choose the materials covered in their classrooms. This decentralization of curricular decisions may allow schools to choose curricula that are better aligned with the needs of their particular student populations but may misalign instruction with the priorities of the larger community. Decentralization may also harm the achievement of mobile students, who must change curricula when they change schools. This paper analyzes the effect of curriculum standardization on student achievement using quasi-experimental variation from New York City, which granted cutoff-based exemptions from its standardized math and reading curricula. Regression discontinuity estimates indicate that curriculum standardization had no significant effects on student achievement in general or for mobile students. The lack of benefit for mobile students is consistent with the notion that differences in curricula explain little of mobility achievement gap. Close

Estimating Import Quality: Do Countries Agree on Rankings? Job Market Paper (under review)

Abstract: A large and growing literature focuses on product quality differentiation and its positive and normative importance for international trade. In this literature, there are a number of approaches that indirectly infer product quality based on product price and quantity data. I propose a simple test for the robustness of commonly used approaches to quality inference: when purchasing goods from a common set of exporters, do two importers agree on which goods are high quality? This paper examines three most applied approaches (unit value, demand residuals derived from a CES model, and demand residuals derived from an augmented nested logit framework) and calculates the inferred quality of each exporter-product from the perspective of multiple importers. Results from Spearman's rank correlation tests show that unit values are the most consistent quality measure. Somewhat paradoxically, using additional variables suggested by theory, including import quantity and other controls, worsens the agreement across importers. The nested logit framework generates negative rank correlations in over half the sample. I examine a number of explanations for this troubling result.

Local Access to Credit and International Trade.” University of Colorado Discussion Papers in Economics No. 16-01. Latest draft: October 2016.

Does local access to credit affect large-scale firm outcomes like exporting? Brazil_Labelled_Map_banks_exports_spI answer this question by modeling the relationship between finance-constrained exporters and bank entry decisions. Heterogeneous firms must finance fixed export costs via local banks that charge interest rates that are decreasing in bank branch presence.
I estimate this model with a panel of Brazilian municipal-level trade and banking data and show that commercial bank presence per person increases bilateral exports. My results show that local bank access matters: a one standard deviation increase in bank branches per person raises city-level bilateral exports by at least 12.6%. The effect is even stronger for industries where the credit constraint binds: bilateral industry exports increase by a much as 32.4% in sectors that use less internal funds and have more difficulty producing collateral.

Global Risk Sharing Through Trade in Goods and Assets: Theory and Evidence, Job Market Paper
Firms facing uncertain demand at the time of production expose their shareholders to volatile returns. Risk-averse investors trading multiple assets will favor stocks that tend to yield high returns in bad times, that is, when the marginal utility of consumption is high. In this paper, I develop a firm-level gravity model of trade with risk-averse investors to show that firms seeking to maximize their present value will take into account that shareholders discount expected profits depending on the correlation with their expected marginal utility of consumption. The model predicts that, ceteris paribus, firms sell more to markets where profits covary less with the income of their investors. This holds true even in the presence of complete and internationally integrated financial markets. To test the model's prediction, I use data on stock returns to estimate correlations between demand growth in export markets and expected marginal utility growth of U.S. investors. I then show that the pattern of U.S. exports across destination markets and time is consistent with the predictions of my model. I conclude that by maximizing shareholder value, exporters are actively engaged in global risk sharing.

Why Special Economic Zones? Using Trade Policy to Discriminate Across Importers [Job Market Paper]

Special Economic Zones (SEZs) are a globally common and economically important policy tool used by governments to lower tariffs on intermediate goods for selected manufacturers. Why would governments want to do this? In contrast to existing models, which assume uniform tariffs, I build a theory in which a government motivated by both political and welfare considerations can charge different intermediate tariffs to different importers of the same intermediate good. Optimal policy follows a simple two-tiered tariff rule, in which some importers are charged the prevailing tariff, and other firms are charged a reduced tariff. I argue this policy is implemented in practice through selective permission to produce in SEZs. The model predicts that the size of SEZs will depend on the (endogenous) volume of imports in equilibrium and that the industries prioritized for duty-reduced access to a particular intermediate through SEZs will be politically influential, elastic users of the intermediate, and protected in equilibrium by a low ad-valorem equivalent final goods tariff. Using a novel data set I constructed from public records covering the universe of active SEZs in the United States, I show that the model's predictions about the size and industrial composition of SEZs are consistent with the way they are implemented in practice.

Job Market Research
Unpacking Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from European Firms Link to Latest Draft
Abstract: The intensifying nature of policy uncertainty makes it a popular explanation for recent weak economic performance and puzzles. However, the empirical literature is limited in its ability to make causal claims because it largely relies on macro-level measures of policy uncertainty and treats the concept as homogenous but indeterminate. This research addresses these weaknesses by exploiting variation in firms' exposure to external markets to construct a firm-level measure of policy uncertainty. The approach both highlights a new channel for policy uncertainty and allows for stronger causal identification of the effects of policy uncertainty on economic performance. As part of this effort, I improve on prior approaches to measuring policy uncertainty and distinguish between generic, fiscal, monetary, and trade policy uncertainty. Based on human audits, my generic measure of policy uncertainty shows a 76 percent improvement in accuracy relative to Baker, Bloom, and Davis's (2016) measure. I find that firms with greater exposure to external markets tend to experience larger declines in investment, sales, profits, and employment when fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty increase. Unexpectedly, increases in trade policy uncertainty appear to have a positive impact on exports for exposed firms. Both sets of findings can be rationalized in a standard model of firm investment under uncertainty. In particular, I present evidence that exposed firms may perceive increased uncertainty around trade agreement negotiations as a signal that negative outcomes are less likely in the near-term, incentivizing immediate investments. Online Appendix

The Effects of Timeliness on the Trade Pattern between Primary and Processed Goods
Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of time costs incurred while accessing the intermediate inputs on the trade pattern
between primary and processed goods. I explore both the direct and indirect effects, arising through input-output linkages, of
transportation infrastructure reforms on the trade pattern. Using a factor content methodology, I find that the indirect effects of
improvement in timeliness in trade (ignored in the current literature) is relatively more important in driving the comparative advantage
in processed goods. To do this, I construct a measure for how intensively an industry demands for the timely delivery of its
intermediate inputs across industries following the procedure carried out in Nunn (2007). I use country specific input-output tables,
and Hummels and Schaur (2013)'s calculations of the ad-valorem tariff equivalent of consumers' willingness to pay more for a good to
be delivered one day earlier to compute this measure. I show that any country that has a higher ability to transport goods on time has a
comparative advantage in industries that place a higher value on the timely delivery of their inputs, and this comparative advantage
pattern is stronger for processed goods than for primary goods. I find that what differentiates the primary and processed goods, on
average, is not how intensively consumers demand the goods on time, but how intensively the industries demand their inputs on time,
thereby leading to this result. I implement a country's geographical features and its neighboring countries' infrastructure quality to
address the endogeneity between trade and infrastructure. Moreover, I address the co-location effects due to the correlation between
downstream industrial demand for intermediate inputs and the time cost in accessing the inputs. I use the exogenously given natural
resource endowment and the resource intensity of the inputs as a way to break through this endogeneity between the availability of
upstream activities in the local economy and the downstream production and exports.

Value-added Trade, Exchange Rate Pass-Through, and Trade Elasticity: Revisiting Trade Competitiveness [Job Market Paper]
How is exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) measures affected by increasing participation in global value chains? This paper measures ERPT for value-added trade, where intermediate inputs are shared among countries in a back-and-forth manner for producing a single final product. Estimation of pass-through was done using World Input-Output Database (WIOD), World Economic Outlook (WEO), and OECD statistics. Empirically estimated findings suggest that ignoring the value-added trade will cause a systematic upward bias in the estimation of ERPT. From empirical investigation, it is also evident that there exists substantial heterogeneity in pass-through rates across sectors: sectors with high-integration into global market functions with a lower rate of exchange in comparison to sectors with less integration.

Trade Finance and International Currency: A Monetary Search Approach (Job Market Paper)

Abstract: This paper studies the determinants of currency choice in trade. Previous literature focused on economy size and openness, but that couldn't explain why RMB remains largely national, while China is already leading in international trade. This paper highlights the importance of financial development for currency internationalization. First I use SWIFT dataset to empirically verify the significance of financial development. Then I build a two-country monetary search model in which trade takes time, and the lack of commitment makes exporter and importer rely on bank-intermediated finance. The agent's currency choice is related with terms of trade, monetary policy, and financial efficiency. Optimal monetary policy differs according to currency regime. Related topics such as size effect and global imbalance are also discussed.