德意志银行：亚洲金属与矿产行业研究报告2009年6月

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Table of Contents
Actionable ideas ................................................................................ 5
Buy and Sell list.........................................................................................................................5
Our stock selection criteria .......................................................................................................5
Our regional top picks...............................................................................................................7
Pair trade ideas .........................................................................................................................8
Valuation methodology ...........................................................................................................10
Risks ......................................................................................................................................10
Macroeconomic indicators ............................................................. 11
Performances and valuations ......................................................... 12
Looking for laggards in rising demand environment ...............................................................12
Sector outperforms market.....................................................................................................13
Sector valuation ......................................................................................................................14
Deutsche Bank stock views ............................................................ 18
Five themes to watch...................................................................... 20
Stock ideas implied by the five themes ..................................................................................20
Theme 1: The demand outlook on government stimulus........................................................21
Theme 2: Persistent overcapacity...........................................................................................24
Theme 3: Costs down, margins up .........................................................................................28
Theme 4: China Consolidations...............................................................................................34
Theme 5: China’s upstream ambition .....................................................................................38
China steel market........................................................................... 41
China is the driver ...................................................................................................................41
China steel demand: on a steady recovery path .....................................................................42
We expect a better 2H09........................................................................................................45
India steel market............................................................................ 48
Steel consumption set for strong growth ...............................................................................48
Industry structure....................................................................................................................49
Supply: greenfield expansions to be delayed, brownfield in time...........................................51
Korea steel market .......................................................................... 52
Crude steel consumption to decline 20% in FY09 ..................................................................52
Construction long steel: better-than-expected performance, but limited upside due to weak
construction activity ................................................................................................................53
…as unsold inventory continues to be burdensome...............................................................53
Heavy plates not in tight supply anymore...............................................................................55
Metals: hints of stability ................................................................. 57
More negative demand shocks unlikely..................................................................................57
Demand: the China factor .......................................................................................................58
Supply: output economics ......................................................................................................59
Copper ...................................................................................................................................61
Aluminium..............................................................................................................................63
Zinc ........................................................................................................................................65
Nickel .....................................................................................................................................66
Deutsche Bank’s metals prices forecast.................................................................................70
Physical prices ................................................................................. 71
Steel prices .............................................................................................................................71
Metals prices ..........................................................................................................................72
Bulk prices ..............................................................................................................................75
Company pages ............................................................................... 77
Angang Steel .................................................................................................... 78
Antam ...................................................................................................... 82
Baogang .................................................................................................. 86
Chalco ...................................................................................................... 90
China Moly ............................................................................................. 94
China Steel ............................................................................................. 98
Dongkuk Steel Mill ............................................................................. 102
Hyundai Steel ...................................................................................... 106
Jiangxi Copper .................................................................................... 110
Maanshan-H ......................................................................................... 114
Nalco ...................................................................................................... 118
POSCO ................................................................................................... 122
PT Inco ................................................................................................... 126
Steel Authority of India .................................................................... 130
Tata Steel Limited .............................................................................. 134
Zijin Group ............................................................................................ 138

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