汇丰银行：日本保险行业研究报告2009年5月

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􀀗Market volatility and our stress tests
show differences we think are not
reflected in stock prices
􀀗 Efficiency and risk management are key
indicators. Nipponkoa, AIOI and Sompo
Japan are weak performers
􀀗 Mitsui Sumitomo and Tokio Marine are
the best all-round performers and our
preferred stocks
Earnings and share prices are historically linked to the
Topix. However, in a period of low growth and low
investment returns, we believe management action is set to
become the key to earnings growth, and we think this will
drive valuations.
Solvency margins have fallen sharply but are nevertheless
holding up reasonably well. Risk management varies from
company to company, but only Sompo Japan’s capital
causes concerns, in our view. We believe all the companies
in our Japanese p&c universe have diminished headroom to
their credit and financial strength ratings.
Expenses are disproportionate to growth prospects. We
believe p&c insurers need to improve efficiency, as the lowgrowth,
low-investment-return outlook has redefined scale.
Nipponkoa is the weakest in terms of underlying profitability;
AIOI’s higher dependency on auto insurance will hit
profitability as growth slows. Tokio Marine and Mitsui
Sumitomo are the most geared to cost reductions.
Our preferred stocks are Mitsui Sumitomo and Tokio
Marine. Nipponkoa our least preferred. FY Mar-09
results could be the catalyst to drive fundamental
differentiation of the companies into stock prices. We have
changed our earnings estimates for FY Mar-09 while leaving
our earnings estimates for FY Mar-10 and beyond
unchanged ahead of results.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 汇丰银行 行业研究 保险行业 日本 研究报告 行业 汇丰银行