摩根斯坦利：日本互联网行业报告2009年7月

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Internet Services
Battleground Shifts to Mobile:
Upgrade Industry View, Mixi,
Yahoo Japan, Downgrade
DeNA, Initiate on Gree
What's Changed
Industry View: Internet Services In-Line to Attractive
Investment ranking: Mixi > Rakuten > Gree > DeNA >
Yahoo Japan: In this report we focus on the growth
potential of the mobile internet (‘mobile’) and the
balance of power in this field. We also upgrade our
industry view and change our coverage pecking order.
Upgrading our industry view from In-Line to
Attractive: We look for structural growth independent of
the macro-economy, centered on mobile. In the short
term too we see a rising likelihood that the industry will
outperform TOPIX, as the slump in ad demand is
nearing a bottom.
Frontier shifts from PC to mobile: We expect Mixi to
thrive and Yahoo Japan to struggle. Yahoo and
Rakuten are already supreme in PC internet. The battle
now moves to mobile, where spread of flat-rate services
and richer content supports a growth outlook. The
identity of winners and losers in mobile will greatly affect
market share in the internet industry.
We expect Mixi to prosper. We are also upgrading
Yahoo Japan because of a near-term bottom in
advertising revenue, but with reservations about its
growth potential longer term hold short of a bullish view.
Rakuten can view the mobile fray with detachment:
The firm has areas of specialty in both PC and mobile
internet. In e-commerce, mobile is able to disperse PC
branch networks and inventory and is simply an adjunct
to PC internet business, and there are no signs of
competitors emerging from the mobile field to threaten
Rakuten there. In Rakuten Ichiba auction business, the
firm has adapted well to the emergence of mobile, with
18% of business already coming via the mobile route.

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这也太贵了吧，不太合理。