欧洲电力行业研究报告2009年7月

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Southern European
Generators
Light at the end of the tunnel;
Iberdrola our top pick
Spanish demand stabilizing in June/July but no
signs of recovery in Italy. In June Spanish electricity
demand surprised on the upside, declining by a modest
4.2% (-7.1% YTD) and this positive trend has continued
into July (-2.1% MTD). The impact of the economic
downturn in Spain on electricity demand appears less
than feared. Equilibration of the gas market in three
years could be next, in our view. 2Q results might signal
the bottom of the current cycle.
Increase in estimates, reduction in risk. The risk of
structural long-term overcapacity is moderately reducing.
The increase in the oil price, offset by a weaker dollar
and lower CO2 prices, has a 4.1% positive impact on net
profit. Rights/share issues and disposals at ENEL,
Iberdrola and Gas Natural have lowered sub-sector
gearing and risk.
Iberdrola – top pick, resuming coverage with OW,
PT

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 电力行业 Overcapacity 研究报告 行业 电力 欧洲

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