【溢出效应的财政刺激：美国ZF的刺激计划】 Crowding Out Fiscal Stimulus (2017)

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Crowding Out Fiscal Stimulus
Testing the Effectiveness of US Government Stimulus Programs

Authors: John J. Heim



Addresses empirically the effectiveness of government economic stimulus programs

Exhaustively applies tests to different models and time periods

Tests effectiveness during recessions and nonrecession periods

Favors testing pro-stimulus Keynesian models to avoid biased interpretations

This book presents overwhelming evidence that US government stimulus programs over the past fifty years have not worked. Using the best and most modern econometric testing models, it applies 228 separate hard science tests to examine the effects of different stimulus models that should, in theory, have shown positive results. By testing every possible alternative interpretation, starting with one time period and then retesting in three additional time periods, this definitive study finds that even when favoring pro-stimulus Keynesian models, public financing through government tax cuts and spending increase programs is more likely to drive down - or "crowd out" - as much private sector spending as it stimulates in the public sector.

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Crowding Out Fiscal Stimulus_Testing the Effectiveness of US Government Stimulus.pdf (2.86 MB, 需要: 15 个论坛币)

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关键词：stimulus Crowding Fiscal Crowd 溢出效应 programs government different 美国ZF economic

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