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After Long Knocking, Door Finally Opening
Momentum to Continue in 2H09
Overseas Sales, the Long-term
Growth Driver
New Games, the Springboard
for Developers
Stakes Getting Bigger
Domestic Game Market to
Continue Growth
NCsoft
(036570, BUY (reinstate))
Fig 1: Online game industry outperformed market in 1H09
Fig 2: High premium justifiable, given NCsoft’s excellent EPS growth
Fig 3: Neowiz Games’ fair PER is at discount to that of NCsoft
Fig 4: Chinese publishers at below-market EPS growth rate; Comparison less meaningful
Fig 5: Fair value of the three major online game companies
Fig 6: Overseas peers’ major investment indicators
Fig 7: Major game companies’ 2009 PER vs. EPS growth
Fig 8: Major game companies’ 2009 PBR vs. ROE
Fig 9: Domestic online game companies’ growth led by overseas sales
Fig 10: Online game market growing rapidly
Fig 11: Overseas sales trend by company
Fig 12: Overseas forays boosting 2009 results
Fig 13: Proportion of overseas sales at three majors rising in earnest in 2009
Fig 14: Online game company types
Fig 15: New games’ boost to OR at NCsoft
Fig 16: Difference in cost structure between game developer and publishing company
Fig 17: Commission expenses rise as much as game service expands for publishing
companies
Fig 18: Publisher’s OP margin does not change as much as developer’s
Fig 19: Online game market on high growth track
Fig 20: Chinese market growing the fastest
Fig 21: China’s online game market growing to 26% of global market in 2009 from 17% in
2006
Fig 22: Korean game companies’ Chinese market position strengthened from 2H08
Fig 23: Temporary halt in Blizzard’s WoW service in China
Fig 24: US and European online game market to grow at CAGR of 17% by 2010
Fig 25: Domestic online game market to grow at 20% CAGR by 2010
Fig 26: Both household income and entertainment spending declined YoY
Fig 27: Proportion of entertainment spending in household expenditures recovering
Fig 28: Travel industry sluggish, but online game market riding strong uptrend
Fig 29: Number of unique visitors to web board games
Fig 30: Number of Internet game players 40 years of age or older more than doubled
Fig 31: Domestic online genre games concentrated in CJ Internet
Fig 32: Web board games’ proportion of unique visitors is similar to MMORPG
Fig 33: Combined web board game sales of three major companies to rise 21%YoY in
2009
Fig 34: NCsoft’s share price has followed its OP margin trend
Fig 35: NCsoft’s PER band chart
Fig 36: NCsoft’s EV/EBITDA band chart
Fig 37: AION to drive growth in consolidated OR through 2010
Fig 38: NCsoft rapidly recovering investment for AION development; OP margin reaching
50%
Fig 39: NCsoft’s consolidated earnings trend
Fig 40: NCsoft’s parent-basis earnings trend
Fig 41: AION’s advancement into overseas markets
Fig 42: User base to expand in regions outside of Korea and China from 2010
Fig 43: AION-related sales growing rapidly in proportion at overseas subsidiaries
Fig 44: Shanda increasing servers aggressively; Royalties to reach KRW57.3bn in 2009
Fig 45: AION to account for 41% of 2010 OR at N. America subsidiary
Fig 46: AION to account for 53% of 2010 OR at Europe subsidiary
Fig 47: Existing games’ peak concurrent users in North America and Europe totaled
70,000
Fig 48: Guild Wars ranks the second among MMORPGs in North America
Fig 49: AION well received in US and Europe
Fig 50: AION to account for 64% of OR at Taiwan subsidiary by end-2009
Fig 51: AION to account for 32% of OR at Japan subsidiary by end-2009
Fig 52: Neowiz Games’ PER band
Fig 53: Neowiz Games’ EV/EBITDA band
Fig 54: Proportion of publishing to remain flat; Personnel expenses to decline
Fig 55: OP margin to improve gradually on drop in personnel expenses-to-OR ratio
Fig 56: No. of unique visitors increased even in off-peak season of 2Q09
Fig 57: Average session duration also trending up
Fig 58: Quarterly and annual earnings trend
Fig 59: Proportion of overseas royalty income rising continually
Fig 60: Overseas sales growing the fastest
Fig 61: Royalty income displayed clear uptrend from 2H08
Fig 62: Cross Fire’s Chinese market entry a successful case
Fig 63: Number of titles entering overseas markets to more than double in 2009
Fig 64: Sports games account for significant proportion of publishing sales
Fig 65: CJ Internet’s PER band
Fig 66: CJ Internet’s EV/EBITDA band
Fig 67: Solid growth of domestic publishing sales
Fig 68: Proportion of publishing to rise to 67% in 2010
Fig 69: Commercialization of new games in 2009 to slightly raise marketing cost ratio
Fig 70: Decreased unique visitors in 2Q09
Fig 71: Decreased site duration time
Fig 72: CJ Internet’s quarterly earnings
Fig 73: Portion of new game sales to grow rapidly
Fig 74: CJ Internet to storm overseas market from 2009 and reap overseas sales from
2010
Fig 75: Securing paying users key for growth potential
Fig 76: Web board game sales to slow from 2009
Fig 77: Operations in China and outlook by company
Fig 78: Operations in Taiwan and outlook by company
Fig 79: Operations in US and outlook by company
Fig 80: Operations in Europe and outlook by company
Fig 81: Operations in Japan and outlook by company
Fig 82: NCsoft’s ownership structure
Fig 83: Neowiz Games’ ownership structure
Fig 84: CJ Internet’s ownership structure
Fig 85: NCsoft’s affiliates
Fig 86: Neowiz Games’ affiliates
Fig 87: CJ Internet’s affiliates
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