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雷达卡
Taiwan Semiconductor Industry
2Q09 results planner: expect healthy outlook for
3Q09; share price upside mostly from structural
turnaround plays
Taiwan
Semiconductors
Bhavin ShahAC
(852) 2800-8538
bhavin.a.shah@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
Patrick Liao
(886-2) 2725-9874
patrick.kh.liao@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited.
Cynthia Chou
(886-2) 2725-9898
cynthia.hy.chou@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited.
See page 39 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
• Upside for 2Q09E; moderate growth for 3Q09E: As we stated in our Taiwan
Tech Snapshot, published on July 17, 2009, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry
performed even better than already strong 2Q09 guidance. For 3Q09, we expect
Taiwanese semiconductor companies under our coverage to post further growth.
For 3Q09, we expect ASE/SPIL to report sales growth of ~10-15%, followed by
Richtek/Novatek (about 10% growth); TSMC/UMC (5-10%); and Powertech
(slightly above 5%).
• In 3Q09, we expect growth momentum from all segments—except from
white-box handset: For 3Q09, further growth momentum for the companies
we cover is likely to come from all the 3Cs (PCs, communications and
consumers), such as PC, PC graphics, branded handsets, WLAN, TV, set-top
boxes, blue-ray DVD, game consoles. Powertech should benefit from memory
bit growth. Only area of slowdown remains whitebox Handsets following
strong growth in 2Q09.
• UMC may post the strongest earnings growth in 3Q09E and FY10E, and
followed by ASE: We estimate UMC to post the strongest earnings growth in
3Q09 and FY10E, with triple-digit growth from a low base. We continue to
highlight the likely turn-around and structural changes for UMC. We estimate
ASE’s 2010E sales to grow by 14% and will be making the second-best earnings
growth in our coverage universe, with more than 50% and 70% earnings growth
for 3Q09E and FY10E, respectively.
• We upgrade UMC and ASE to OW, and remain OW on Powertech;
downgrade Novatek and Richtek to Neutral due to limited share upside:
Among Taiwanese semiconductor firms under our coverage, we upgrade UMC
to OW due to the improvement in its operation and earnings capability. We also
upgrade ASE to OW due to the earnings growth potential for 2010E and 2011E.
We still like Powertech and believe the share momentum could continue to
sustain, and remain OW. Novatek and Richtek had enjoyed a strong rally since
mid-June; however, we see limited upside potential ahead and downgrade both
the stocks to Neutral.
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