Contents
Next cycle peak in 2012? 3
1. Modest supply growth 3
2. Demand set to improve? 3
3. Norwegian diseases levelling off 4
Norwegian supply growth prospects and cost trend 6
High Norwegian biomass level key short-term risk.. 6
Norwegian harvesting growth set to increase significantly in H2(09).. 6
.. but modest Norwegian growth in H2(10) onwards? 7
Norwegian cost level set to decline 8
A Chilean recovery will most likely take years 10
Recent market trends and market balance 2009e – 2010e 11
Salmon prices and outlook 14
Norway: Short-term downside risk, but good prospects longer term 14
Canadian producers best positioned for the US market 16
Fillet prices fob Miami and link to Norwegian prices 16
Valuation and sensitivities 17
EV/kg 17
Geographical exposure 18
Expected EBIT/kg trend 19
PE run rates and sensitivities 20
Arctic’s earnings multiples 21
Marine Harvest 22
Good geographical mix, prospects for strong cash flow 22
Q2 preview 22
Cermaq 26
High Chilean exposure and less attractive risk/reward 26
Q2 preview 26
SalMar 30
Strong operating performance set to continue 30
Q2 preview 30
Lerøy Seafood Group 34
Limited free float, but attractive valuation 34
Q2 preview 34
Disclaimer 38
Contact information 40