1 论文标题
老龄化与人口流动:来自中国的宏微观实证分析
2 作者信息
Örn B. Bodvarsson, 加利福尼亚州立大学萨克拉门托分校
侯维忠,加利福尼亚州立大学长滩分校&河南大学
沈凯玲,厦门大学&澳大利亚国立大学
3 出处和链接
出处:
Örn B. Bodvarsson,Jack W. Hou,Kailing Shen. Aging and Migration: Micro and Macro Evidence from China[J]. Front. Econ. China, 2016, 11(4): 548-580.
链接:
http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/10.3868/s060-005-016-0029-5
4 摘要
摘要:改革开放后的中国在人口方面经历着两个重要变化:人口老龄化日益严重,以及由农村进入城镇的流动人口迅猛增加。本文探讨的问题是,这两方面的变化是否有关联?如果有,机制为何?相关文献普遍认为移民的动机随年龄呈下降趋势。我国的实际情况是人口流动的主体为非技术工人,且人口流动以非永久流动为主。基于这两点,我们构建了一个简洁的理论框架,并据此使用微观截面数据和宏观面板数据分析老龄化对人口流动的影响。我们的实证分析显示年龄结构的变化对我国的人口流动格局有显著影响:一方面人口流动将更多地收敛于临近省份(也可能更多的从跨省转向省内流动),另一方面人口流动将更集中于少数目的省份。
Abstract: Post-reform China has been experiencing two major demographic changes: an increasingly aging population and an extraordinary surge of rural-urban migrants. The question we ask is: are these two demographic changes related? If yes, then, how? The standard view in the migration literature is that the older the migrant, the lower the likelihood of migration. This paper proposes a simple theory of temporary migration for unskilled labor to fit the context of China. Motivated by our model, we then use both cross-sectional micro data and panel macro data to examine the potential impacts of aging on migration. We find that shifts in China’s age distribution have generated significant changes in the country’s migration patterns: migration will shift to closer provinces (probably switching from interprovincial migration to intra-provincial migration) and will concentrate to a few destination provinces.