Utilities
Italy Offers More Growth;
Snam Rete Gas Our Top Pick
We are resuming coverage on the regulated names
in Italy and Spain. The regulated utility stocks have
underperformed significantly in recent months, a reflection
of their tendency to underperform the market during broad
equity rallies, and the rigorous regulatory reviews that lie
ahead for the sector. However, fundamentals now indicate
17% average upside potential. This makes for an attractive
value proposition for those stocks that benefit from a
solid regulatory framework and strong balance sheets.
Italy offers both visibility and value – SRG is our top
pick. The mix of regulatory transparency and value is
particularly evident in Italy, where sustainable regulation
combines with 20-25% upside potential. In contrast, in
Spain we find the quality of regulation lacking while high
gearing is hampering the UK’s potential.
SRG offers the highest equity RAB growth in the
industry. We estimate that the company will grow its
equity RAB by 11.2% p.a. (including dividend) over the
next four years, more than 200bps above its closer peer,
Terna, thanks to a combination of strong cost-cutting
potential,