《Volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock market under structural breaks》
此篇论文发表在2016年Global Finance Journal上。作者使用单双变量GARCH模型来分析美国股票市场和石油市场波动之间的联系。 作者发现在忽略结构断裂的情况下, 石油市场和美股市市场不存在波动的传递性。 但在考虑结构断裂的情况下,两市的波动传递性是存在的。
简介
This paper employs univariate and bivariate GARCH models to examine the volatility of oil prices and US stock market prices incorporating structural breaks using daily data from July 1, 1996 to June 30, 2013. We endogenously detect structural breaks using an iterated algorithm and incorporate this information in GARCH models to correctly estimate the volatility dynamics. We find no volatility spillover between oil prices and US stock market when structural breaks in variance are ignored in the model. However, after accounting for structural breaks in the model, we find strong volatility spillover between the two markets. We compute optimal portfolio weights and dynamic risk minimizing hedge ratios to highlight the significance of our empirical results which underscores the serious consequences of ignoring these structural breaks. Our findings are consistent with the notion of cross-market hedging and sharing of common information by financial market participants in these markets.