Macquarie：What Drove China's Capital Outflows in 2016？

相似文件 换一批

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

麦格理大中华区首席经济学家Larry Hu昨日针对2016年中国资本外流状况的报告，9页：

China’s capital outflows topped global macro risks 12 months ago, but much less so recently. Is the risk gone, or is this just the calm before storm? Recently the PBoC has released the detailed Balance of Payment data for 2016. Using the same framework in a note we published one year ago (Dissecting China’s capital outflows in 2015, April 2016), this report focuses on the drivers behind China’s capital outflows in 2016. The main conclusions are:

   Carry trade (“foreigners withdrawing money from China” or “Chinese paying down foreign debt”) has completely reversed, turning from outflows to inflows. In other words, outflows in 2016 were mostly driven by domestic residents and the most important driver was “Chinese increasing foreign assets”.
   2016 was a year of a vicious cycle of outflows and depreciation. The weakening RMB led to domestic money outflows, which further weakened the RMB. The US$640bn capital outflows in 2016 were similar to those in 2015.
   In response, the government substantially tightened capital controls from 2H16, which has largely worked. Meanwhile, foreign money has been returning from 4Q16 via FDI and bond investments. As such, we expect the headline FX reserves to fall by US$150bn in 2017 and for these to start rising again in 2018.

   In our 2017 outlook, we made the out-of-consensus call that the USDCNY would end this year at 6.9, i.e. no depreciation from end-2016. With the updated knowledge on capital outflows, we are comfortable with the forecast.


20170411-Macquarie-China Macro：What Drove Capital Outflows in 2016.pdf (669.84 KB, 需要: 2 个论坛币)

2017-4-12 00:00:52 上传

需要: 2 个论坛币  [购买]

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏1 回帖

关键词：Macquarie outflows Capital outflow capita framework published Recently recently detailed