【悬赏】请教business cycle & output gap_2016 CFA Level3 Morning session 9B

2016 CFA Level3 Morning session 9-B题目中Chadhuri concerned that an output gap is emerging. 根据教材里说
(1) output gap opens in slowdown stage and is still very large in initial recovery stage. (所以题目的情况将要进入slowdown）

但是教材里还说
(2) Inflation increases rapidly in slowdown stage and decreases in initial recovery stage.

所以答案将decline in inflation作为support.是否有问题？
我个人觉得应该用consumer spending大于business spending来作为support。

原题如下。 请教各位！感谢感谢！
Qustion：
Chadhuri also prepares economic forecasts for the developed country of Indusi. Haigang Yang, a portfolio manager at Cambro, considers Chadhuri’s forecasts when determining the tactical asset allocation of Cambro’s Balanced Fund, which invests solely in Indusi’s equity and government bond markets. The fund’s benchmark is 50% equity and 50% government bonds, but Yang has discretion to tactically adjust allocations.
The fund’s current allocation is neutral to the benchmark, but Chadhuri is concerned about the emergence of an output gap and its potential effect on consumer spending. Last year, inflation was 0.75%. The consensus forecast is for the inflation rate to decline slightly to 0.65%. However, Chadhuri’s own forecast is for the inflation rate to decline to 0.25%. Chadhuri’s other forecasts are shown in Exhibit 1.


B.Support, with two reasons based on Chadhuri’s forecasts, his concern that an output gapis emerging.


Answer：
An output gap is the difference between the value of GDP estimated as if the economy were on its trend growth path and the actual value of GDP. Chadhuri’s assessment that an output gap is emerging in the Indusi economy is supported by two factors based on his forecasts. First, Chadhuri forecasts real GDP to decline by 0.15%. Although trend real GDP is not provided, it can be inferred that negative real GDP growth would be below potential output (trend real GDP), which indicates an output gap. Second, Chadhuri expects inflation to decline to 0.25%, compared to the most-recent historical inflation rate of 0.75%. A decline in inflation is typically associated with an output gap.

感谢感谢！

joyquick 发表于 2017-4-12 15:26
谢谢回答。如上教材截图，slowdown阶段inflation continues to accelerate and peaks at recession and ...

电子版你找到：Reading 15 Capital Market Expectation 4.1 Business Cycle Analysis 下Output gap的名词解释

A positive output gap opens in times of recession and slow growth. When a positive output gap is open, inflation tends to decline.

这个题是output gap已经出现了

你贴的图是个general business cycle：在slowdown阶段，inflation持续上升

"但是教材里还说
(2) Inflation increase rapidly in slowdown stage and decrease in initial recovery stage."

可以贴个出处吗？我觉得这个说法有问题

参考原版教材V3 Page 51 下方 黑粗体 Output gap 那段： 在slowdown和recession阶段，output gap是positive，此时inflation tends to decline.

"我个人觉得应该用consumer spending大于business spending来作为support。"

参考原版教材 V3 Page 104底-105顶: consumer spending是most important factor affecting GDP (60-70%); 而Business investment占smaller weight in GDP并且more volatile

所以判断： consumer spending 会一直大于 business invetment; 而且本身business investment more volatile; 这个题目用它们两个比得出结论应该不是很恰当 （个人观点）

出发啊 发表于 2017-4-12 12:16
"但是教材里还说
(2) Inflation increase rapidly in slowdown stage and decrease in initial recovery s ...

谢谢回答。如上教材截图，slowdown阶段inflation continues to accelerate and peaks at recession and then declines, and still decline in the initial recovery

另，我用的电子版教材，所有页面都是连着的，看不到页数，你是怎么看的？

出发啊 发表于 2017-4-12 12:25
"我个人觉得应该用consumer spending大于business spending来作为support。"

参考原版教材 V3 Page 104底 ...

你提的这点很好。那么是否可以用Chadhuri's forecast of Business spending (+0.2%)比consensus forecast(+0.45%)小来解释？因为slowdown的时候有inventory correction。
但是话说回来，如果认定是slowdown阶段，这题里inflation下降是怎么搞的？也许题目本身有问题……

出发啊 发表于 2017-4-12 17:46
电子版你找到：Reading 15 Capital Market Expectation 4.1 Business Cycle Analysis 下Output gap的名词 ...

好吧，只能这么模糊的理解了。谢谢你！

去看看NOTES里面关于OUTPUT GAP的解释你就明白了：the output gap=potential GDP-real GDP, if the output gap>0, it implies that the economy has been slowdown and inflationary pressure have been weakened. if the output gap<0, implies that the economy activity is strong and inflationary pressure are substantial.