摩根斯坦利：台湾地产行业研究报告2009年10月

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Worst Should Be Over; Keep In-Line Industry View:
Taiwan property has improved because of better
cross-Strait relations, regulatory changes, more
financial channels, and a better economic outlook
coupled with low interest rates. NT$ appreciation is likely
to increase the level of liquidity. Stabilizing transaction
volumes, a correction in prices, low interest rates and a
high excess savings rate have all led to a liquidity
build-up. Policy stimuli have also improved the supply
and demand situation in the Greater Taipei area. Our
new assumption for property pricing recovery is 10%
YoY growth for 2010E in the Greater Taipei area.
Future Supply Should Not Overwhelm the Property
Market: We believe that developers’ discipline in limiting
supply together with a mild pricing correction have
brought rationalization to Taiwanese property during the
recent economic turmoil.
Low Interest Rates Likely to Boost Demand: Taiwan
affordability is at a high level of around seven times
average income, yet demand has continued to emerge
and can be sustained, in our view. The re-emergence of
liquidity inflow following low interest rates and the impact
from NT$ appreciation is encouraging.
Focus on Greater Taipei Property: Supply discipline
from less inventory, less financing and less land in
Taipei is in place to prevent another bubble post the
economic turmoil. Our preferred asset play is Taifer
(1722.TW, maintain OW) followed by developers Huaku
(2548.TW, raising from EW to OW) and Farglory
(5522.TW, raising from UW to OW). Trading at 15-20%
discounts to NAV, we think these stocks are attractive,
as the market assumes property ASP will stay flat with
no upside.

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