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英文文献：Macroeconomic and Global Growth Influences on the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance-宏观经济和全球增长对美国农业贸易平衡的影响
英文文献作者：Gehlhar, Mark J.,Dohlman, Erik
英文文献摘要：
The U.S. agricultural trade surplus has recently declined to the lowest levels since the early-1970s, raising concerns that it foreshadows a longer term trend of waning foreign demand and greater import dependency. However, analysis of two key factors affecting agricultural trade suggests that the current downward trend in the trade balance may not continue. First, differences in global growth rates and consumption levels are leading to a major shift in the direction of U.S. exports, with the share of exports going to high income markets declining in favor of fast-growing developing markets. Consequently, U.S. export growth could accelerate in the coming decade due to rising per capita incomes and food expenditures in these markets. Second, the U.S dollar may continue to depreciate if foreign capital inflows subside, which would further spur U.S. export growth and dampen imports. Results are supported by analysis conducted with dynamic U.S. computable general equilibrium and static global trade models.
美国农业贸易顺差最近降至上世纪70年代初以来的最低水平，令人担心这预示着一种更长期的趋势，即国外需求减弱，进口依赖增加。然而，对影响农产品贸易的两个关键因素的分析表明，目前贸易差额下降的趋势可能不会继续。首先，全球经济增长率和消费水平的差异正导致美国出口方向的重大转变，出口流向高收入市场的份额下降，流向快速增长的发展中市场。因此，由于这些市场的人均收入和食品支出的增加，美国的出口增长在未来十年可能会加速。其次，如果外国资本流入减少，美元可能会继续贬值，这将进一步刺激美国出口增长，抑制进口。结果由动态的美国可计算一般均衡和静态的全球贸易模型的分析支持。
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