【报告精选】No end in sight: The GCC-Qatar crisis

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With mediation efforts already thwarted by the reciprocal hostilities, Qatar will now seek to build up the presence of foreign troops (especially Turkish) as a safeguard against perceived threats of foreign invasion or internal dissent by political rivals to the emir and his father. Concurrently, it will continue to tour foreign capitals in Europe and North America to rally international support for its cause.

These efforts will face countermeasures by the four Arab states, which will rely mostly on economic embargoes to pressure Qatar into accepting their demands (albeit with little success). Further, we do not discount the possibility of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain backing their tribal allies in Qatar to undermine Sheikh Tamim. The position of the current youthful Qatari emir will therefore grow increasingly vulnerable, particularly if rivals within the monarchy start to mobilise against him. However, the tight control over the Qatari military by the current Al Thani rulers, means that the removal of Sheikh Tamim will not be an easy task. In any case, threats to Sheikh Tamim’s position will also be reinforced as the dispute drags on and if it inflicts serious economic pain on Qatari citizens.

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