These efforts will face countermeasures by the four Arab states, which will rely mostly on economic embargoes to pressure Qatar into accepting their demands (albeit with little success). Further, we do not discount the possibility of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain backing their tribal allies in Qatar to undermine Sheikh Tamim. The position of the current youthful Qatari emir will therefore grow increasingly vulnerable, particularly if rivals within the monarchy start to mobilise against him. However, the tight control over the Qatari military by the current Al Thani rulers, means that the removal of Sheikh Tamim will not be an easy task. In any case, threats to Sheikh Tamim’s position will also be reinforced as the dispute drags on and if it inflicts serious economic pain on Qatari citizens.