发帖
雷达卡
Utilities
Contango Collapse? Move to
Defensive Names
The operating environment will get worse, not better
– more underperformance to come. Current forward
curves in steep contango look optimistic to us. Recent
data suggest demand will disappoint, and continued
capacity expansion and a gas market in oversupply will
put pressure on power prices, flattening the curve. We
see clear downside risk to 2011 earnings, a time when
other sectors are likely to be delivering upgrades. We
move to Cautious on the sector and take a defensive
stance in our stock picks. Regulated utilities National
Grid and Snam Rete Gas are now among our top picks.
What gives us conviction? We’ve taken a close look at
recent demand data and industry projections. Trends in
both are downward. With six years of demand growth
‘lost’ in the past 12 months, absolute levels of demand –
which is what matters – will not reach 2007/08 levels for
at least six years. We’ve also taken a deep dive into the
gas market, where dynamics are typically tough to
discern. Here we see a structural shift in the market that
will create a prolonged period of oversupply, causing the
steep contango in gas prices to unwind.
With clear downside risk to earnings, sector
valuation is not compelling. We expect consensus
downgrades to continue, with a potential for 2011
forecasts to fall another 20% if our thesis is correct. In
this context, the current valuation looks less attractive.
And with positive EPS momentum likely in other sectors,
we do not believe the sector will outperform.
We move to a defensive stance in our stock picks.
We would avoid names with the most exposure to power
generation or gas prices. We have a clear preference for
regulated utilities where we see value and for the
integrated names with the least exposure to power
generation/gas – our top picks are National Grid, Snam
Rete Gas, EDF, A2A and GDF SUEZ. We downgrade
International Power, Drax, Iberdrola and RWE to
Equal-weight. We remain bearish on Enel, Gas Natural
and Fortum on the weaker power and gas price theme.
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