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Key themes in this issue:
- Both consumption and investment are improving gradually;
- Sustained exports growth a key support to growth;
- Fiscal stance still broadly conservative, mixed outcomes on monetary policy ahead.
Conclusion: The growth recovery is broadening. Initially led by external demand, we are now seeing signs of a gradual recovery in domestic demand in both consumption and investment. There have been announcements of fiscal easing in select countries in the region, but the fiscal stance is still assessed to be broadly conservative. On monetary policy, we no longer expect a rise in interbank rates in China and now look for a rate cut in India in its August meeting. For the other central banks, however, we expect rates to be either kept on hold or hiked (in Philippines, Indonesia and Taiwan) from later this year/early next year. For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
20170728-Morgan Stanley-Growth Indicators：Your Comprehensive Guide to Asia'.pdf
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