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The International Outlook presents an assessment by the U.S. Energy Information Administration of the outlook for international energy markets through 2050 .
In the International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017) Reference case, total world energy consumption rises from 575 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2015 to 736 quadrillion Btu in 2040, an increase of 28%. Most of the world’s energy growth will occur in countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), where strong, long-term economic growth drives increasing demand for energy. Non-OECD Asia (including China and India) alone accounts for more than half of the world’s total increase in energy consumption over the 2015 to 2040 projection period. By 2040, energy use in non-OECD Asia exceeds that of the entire OECD by 41 quadrillion Btu in the IEO2017 Reference case.
Economic growth—as measured by gross domestic product (GDP)—is a key determinant in the growth of energy demand. The world’s GDP (expressed in purchasing power parity terms) rises by 3.0%/year from 2015 to 2040. The fastest rates of growth are projected for the emerging, non-OECD regions, where combined GDP increases by 3.8%/year, driving the fast-paced growth in future energy consumption among those nations. In the OECD regions, GDP grows at a much slower rate of 1.7%/year between 2015 and 2040, at least in part, because of slow or declining population growth in those regions.
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